3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 5/30/24

1mo

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Red Sox Moneyline (-116)

The Detroit Tigers and Boston Red Sox are two original American League franchises that represent well-storied baseball communities. For Thursday, Detroit and Boston will commence a four-game set from Fenway Park.

This first meeting between the Red Sox and Tigers will feature starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta. Flaherty has been sharp in 2024, but he'll have a tough task taking down Boston in their home park. With that, I am targeting Boston at their moneyline of -112.

The BoSox have mashed the ball for a .720 team OPS this year. In particular, Rafael Devers (40.5% Statcast hard-hit rate) and Jarren Duran (.345 xwOBA) have kept the line moving. Going against Flaherty, Boston's lineup will also benefit from the hitter-friendly venue; Fenway currently has a lofty 107 Park Factor score.

The MLB game projections at numberFire like the home team in this bid, giving the Red Sox a 57.87% winning likelihood against the Tigers. ESPN Analytics concurs with this sentiment, offering a 63.4% chance for Boston to win. The -116 moneyline implies odds of just 53.7%.

Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET

Braves -1.5 (+100)

On Thursday, the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves will complete a four-game series at Truist Park.

For Game 4 between these NL East foes, the projected starters are Trevor Williams and Ray Kerr. Thus far into 2024, both hurlers have been solid. Entering Thursday, Williams has posted a 3.89 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) for Washington whereas Kerr owns a 2.53 SIERA for the Braves, although Kerr has been working mostly as a reliever.

When it comes to offense, it is not as if we are splitting hairs here. Atlanta has earned MLB's seventh-best team OPS (.730) while scoring 4.58 runs per game. Conversely, the Nats have plated only 4.0 runs per game with a .662 team OPS.

I like Atlanta -1.5 (+100 odds) to wrap up this divisional series. True, they will be without reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. for the rest of the season, but I still think the Braves have enough to win by two or more runs on Thursday.

Historically, Atlanta first baseman Matt Olson has hit Williams quite well. The same can be said for shortstop Orlando Arcia. Both Braves infielders carry an OPS north of .940 when batting versus Williams. Simply, I am looking at Olson and Arcia to perpetuate frequent scoring.

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 Runs (-114)

In Southern California, the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels are finishing a four-game set. In the current campaign, New York has been much stronger than the Halos. Still, I am looking at both sides to combine efforts for over 8.5 runs (-114 odds) on Thursday night.

Off the bat, Angel Stadium in Anaheim is known hitter's park, carrying MLB's seventh-highest Park Factor score (101). Given the respective talent in both lineups, it seems likely we'll see a fair bit of scoring.

The probable pitchers in Thursday's game are lefties Carlos Rodon and Patrick Sandoval. Rodon has looked so-so this year, posting a 4.11 SIERA. As for Sandoval, he's shown strikeout upside but has a meh 4.01 SIERA and has given up 13 earned runs across his past three outings (15 2/3 innings).

With sluggers like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton, we know how quickly the Yanks can explode on offense. However, I think the Angels' bats have some advantageous matchups in this game. LA has performed incredibly well against left-handed pitching in 2024, displaying a .774 OPS in the split.

As alluded to, the Bronx Bombers have thrived in the batter's box this season. Currently, their .339 wOBA paces the Majors. From there, New York's 269 runs scored is the fifth-highest total in MLB right now.

Give me over 8.5 runs Thursday at "The Big A."

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.