3 MLB Best Bets for Sunday 9/1/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays

Rays Under 2.5 Runs (+128)

In a complete deviation from their efforts since the deadline, the Tampa Bay Rays exploded for 11 runs yesterday. I wouldn't count on an encore.

Today, Tampa will face Dylan Cease from the San Diego Padres' side -- which is a tall task for anyone. Cease has been among MLB's best hurlers with a 3.33 expected ERA (xERA), .211 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and 30.6% strikeout rate that all ranks 80th percentile or better among qualifiers.

Even with yesterday in tow, Tampa Bay has a poor .639 team OPS and 26.9% K rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Both of those are bottom-three marks in baseball.

It won't get any easier when Cease departs, either. San Diego's bullpen has the best xFIP in MLB over the past month (2.76). It should be a struggle to score all afternoon for the Rays.

Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

Over 8.5 Runs (-102)

These two prolific offenses have yet to explode in this series, but Sunday could be a different story.

By team wRC+ in the past 30 days, the Kansas City Royals (121) and Houston Astros (113) are both top-10 offenses against right-handed pitching. They should be able to scratch off a few runs this afternoon.

Houston should lead the charge against Alec Marsh. Marsh's elevated flyball (43.5%) and hard-hit rates (40.8%) allowed have led to an ugly 1.20 HR/9 to this point, and his xERA (4.93) and xBA (.296) are also both in the bottom 20% of MLB qualifiers. K.C.'s bullpen (4.43 xFIP in the last 30 days) is struggling, too.

However, don't discount the stronger of these two offenses doing a bit of damage against Ronel Blanco. Blanco's 3.14 ERA shows much better than a 4.06 xERA, and he's coughed up a higher HR/9 (1.32) and barrel rate (9.2%) than Marsh even has.

numberFire projects 9.66 median runs in this one; the over is the side of the total at cost.

Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies

Orioles -1.5 (-125)

The Baltimore Orioles need this one to avoid a lost series to the lowly Colorado Rockies, and they're well-positioned to get it.

Deadline acquisition Zach Eflin will toe the slab for Baltimore, and his avoidance of hard contact (36.1% rate allowed) and walks (2.7% rate) are a great match for Coors Field. Eflin's 3.28 xERA is quietly in the 81st percentile of qualifiers; he's been outstanding if not for some rotten luck here and there.

Colorado's team OPS against righties in the past month (.762) is better than you'd think, but there's no doubt the O's have the edge to plate runs today. Ty Blach (6.92 xERA) is Colorado's starter, but since he's failed to top 60 pitches since June 20th, we should we see plenty of a Rockies bullpen that has the fourth-worst reliever xFIP over the past 30 days (4.49).

Eflin is slightly undervalued in this spot, and Baltimore should score several markers against Blach and an embattled 'pen. Even these 55.6% implied odds that Baltimore wins by multiple tallies don't seem high enough.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.