3 MLB Best Bets and Player Props for Wednesday 9/18/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to player props, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds

Spencer Schwellenbach Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)

Losing Spencer Strider to a season-ending injury in April was a huge early blow for the Atlanta Braves, but luckily, the team found a new Spencer who can shove.

Spencer Schwellenbach has shined with a 3.73 ERA, 3.38 xERA, 3.32 xFIP, and 3.33 SIERA in his rookie season. He touts even better numbers since the All-Star break, including a 3.20 ERA, 2.88 xFIP, and a ridiculous 2.90 SIERA (fifth-best in MLB).

This dominance can help him silence and pitch long into a game against the Cincinnati Reds, a team that comes in with a .236 BA (20th) and .309 wOBA (15th) versus righties.

More pertinent, Schwellenbach's strikeout numbers are astounding. On the season, he owns a 26.7% strikeout rate and punches out 9.81 batters per nine innings. He's logged over 5.5 strikeouts in 12 out of 18 starts.

But since the All-Star break, he masters a 30.4% strikeout rate (sixth-best in MLB) and punches out 10.98 batters per nine innings. He's recorded over 5.5 strikeouts in 8 out of 10 outings in this span.

The Reds also strike out at a meaty 24.9% rate versus righties (fourth-highest), so the matchup gives credence to targeting the alt market here. You can get Schwellenbach 7+ Ks at +168 odds. He's punched out at least seven batters in 7 of his last 10 starts.

The Braves currently sit two games behind the final NL Wild Card spot. Last night, Atlanta's bullpen blew a four-run lead to make their playoff hopes a bit tougher, albeit achievable. I wouldn't be surprised to see Schwellenbach take on a lengthy pitch count leash tonight to avoid a heavy reliance on an at-times untrustworthy bullpen.

Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers

Nathaniel Lowe To Record An RBI (+200)

Bowden Francis coughs up a 46.9% fly-ball rate and 1.55 home runs per nine innings and allows a 45.2% fly-ball rate and 1.74 home runs per nine innings to lefties, in particular.

This could put the left-handed Nathaniel Lowe in a decent spot to bat in a run.

Lowe has recorded 59 RBIs through 129 games this season.

While the market is setting Texas' run line at 3.5 runs, numberFire's MLB projections expect the Rangers to score 4.66 runs in this one. In turn, we might be able to find some value in the batters prop market, and it seems we may be getting some here with these +200 odds.

Lowe checks in with a 54.8% hard-hit rate and 206 wRC+ across the last two weeks of play. He typically bats fifth for Texas, which leaves ample opportunity for him to walk to the plate with runners in scoring position.

I'll back Lowe to exploit Francis' fly-ball tendencies tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

Marlins Over 3.5 Runs (-122)

Don't look now, but are the Miami Marlins one of the hottest offenses in baseball?

Across the last 30 days, the Fish have been generating a .262 BA (5th-best in MLB), .408 SLG (10th), and .314 wOBA (12th). They're averaging 4.52 runs per game in this span. The team is also significantly better at home, posting a .303 wOBA at LoanDepot Park but just a .282 wOBA on the road in 2024.

So, as the Marlins gear up for a home date against Landon Knack and the Los Angeles Dodgers, I'm expecting them to put at least four runs on the board.

Knack has been called up to the majors for a cup of coffee a few different times this season. Most recently, he allowed seven hits, five earned runs, and two home runs to the Atlanta Braves through two frames.

A low 6.5% walk rate and a fine enough 4.29 xFIP have allowed Knack to manage an appearingly good 3.70 ERA. However, he allows a concerning 48.1% fly-ball rate and 1.93 home runs per nine innings, a big reason why we have Miami's Connor Norby down as one of today's best home run props.

Even if not Norby, we should be drawn to the Marlins' power hitters in this matchup. Add in a solid team on-base average -- both at home and across the last 30 days -- and an ability to notch stolen bags (116; 12th-most), and I'm high on Miami's offense today. They're one of the worst teams in baseball record-wise (56-95), but the offense seems set up to clear this low bar.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.