3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Wednesday 9/25/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Brent Rooker is two dingers away from notching the first 40 home run season of his career. Tonight, he's got a real chance to inch closer to that achievement.

Rooker and the Oakland Athletics will draw a matchup against Cody Bradford of the Texas Rangers. The left-handed Bradford has been a launching pad for righties, as he surrenders a massive 46.7% fly-ball rate and 1.53 home runs per nine innings to this handedness. He also walks righties at just a 3.8% rate, mitigating the risk for Rooker to see some bad pitches.

Few batters have performed better against southpaws than Rooker. He generates a .310 ISO (5th-best in MLB), .603 SLG (6th), 168 wRC+ (10th), and 49.4% fly-ball rate (12th) versus left-handed pitchers. He's also produced a 16.0% barrel rate since the All-Star break.

FanDuel Research's MLB projections forecast Rooker to log a slate-high 0.39 home runs in this one. Rooker has hit at least one home run in 24.3% of games this season, yet these +400 odds imply only a 20.0% probability. Add in the matchup, and it's easy to see why Rooker is one of today's top home run targets.

Masyn Winn to Hit a Home Run (+460)

When Austin Gomber is pitching at Coors Field, we've gotta consider betting against him.

Gomber has been atrocious with a 5.21 xERA, 4.53 xFIP, 4.63 SIERA, and 16.8% strikeout rate this season. He cedes a .242 ISO, .523 SLG, 42.5% fly-ball rate, and 2.03 home runs per nine innings at a hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Enter Masyn Winn, a player whose gaudy fly-ball rate could fare well against Gomber in a high altitude environment.

Winn comes in with a .234 ISO, .480 SLG, and a sky-high 49.6% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers. He's got the platoon advantage at a hitter-friendly park against a pitcher who has given up the second-most home runs (30) in baseball this season. Most importantly, that 49.6% fly-ball rate is the 10th-highest rate in MLB in this split. I'll back the second-year Cardinal to win out in this matchup.

Andrew McCutchen to Hit a Home Run (+600)

Remember Andrew McCutchen? The 37-year-old has hardly been on our radar as he is firmly entrenched in the nadir of his storied career, but his power numbers have looked pretty good of late.

Across the last 30 days of play, McCutchen is generating a 13.3% barrel rate, .271 ISO, and 53.3% fly-ball rate. He'll take on Freddy Peralta this evening, the main reason why we want to target McCutchen in this market.

Peralta is a talented pitcher, but there's no mistaking how bad he has been against righties in 2024. He's allowed this handedness a .200 ISO, 47.1% fly-ball rate (fifth-highest in MLB), and 1.94 home runs per nine innings (second-highest).

It's hard not to consider a right-handed Pirate to go long in this matchup, and we can get a surprisingly trending upward McCutchen's odds at +600. I'll back him to smash his 320th career homer tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.