3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Wednesday 9/18/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Rookie Hayden Birdsong will take the bump opposite the Baltimore Orioles tonight.

Birdsong has produced a 4.74 ERA, 4.76 xERA, 4.48 SIERA, and an impressive 27.2% strikeout rate through 13 starts this season. But he also surrenders a notable 43.2% fly-ball rate and 1.58 home runs per nine innings.

Even still, no player on the Orioles -- a team that has smashed 218 home runs (second-most in MLB) this season -- owns shorter than +560 odds to go long tonight. This is likely because the right-handed Birdsong has been dominant against lefties and shows reverse splits against righties. Unfortunately, we don't have an ideal right-handed hitter to target with both Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle on the injured list.

However, I'm fine sticking with the O's here if it means we can grab Anthony Santander's home run prop at +560 odds. The switch-hitting Santander has been lighting up northpaws all season to the tune of a .277 ISO, .522 SLG, and a league-leading 57.6% fly-ball rate.

Santander has hit 41 home runs (third-most in MLB) this season and has notched at least one dinger in 26.2% of games played. These +560 odds imply only a 15.1% probability.

I won't pretend this matchup is perfect, as Birdsong has let up only three home runs to the left side of the plate through 31 1/3 frames. However, Birdsong still affords this handedness a 37.8% fly-ball rate.

When Santander is facing a fly-ball-prone rookie righty, he should be on our home-run radar, especially at these odds. Plus, Birdsong has finished the fifth inning in only 5 out of 13 starts, so Santander could be in for a couple of at-bats against the San Francisco Giants' relief pitchers.

Connor Norby to Hit a Home Run (+560)

The Miami Marlins have hit the third-fewest home runs (137) in Major League Baseball this season. Unlike those aforementioned Orioles, they're not a team we consistently check in on in the dinger market. But Connor Norby presents us with an intriguing opportunity to back the Fish tonight.

A rookie, Norby was acquired by Miami from Baltimore as a piece of the Trevor Rogers trade deal. Were the O's too flippant in letting Norby go? Across the last 30 days of play, he's been producing a 13.4% barrel rate, .263 ISO, and 138 wRC+ -- hitting six home runs in this span.

He has awesome numbers against righties, including a .295 ISO, .577 SLG, and 37.5% fly-ball rate. Fortunately, he'll draw a matchup opposite a vulnerable right-hander tonight.

Landon Knack has pitched 56 frames for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season, and it's been bad news more often than not.

To righties, Knack cedes a .272 ISO, .534 SLG, 49.4% fly-ball rate, and 2.81 home runs per nine innings. His HR/9 ratio isn't exactly stabilized given the small-ish sample, but that seismic fly-ball rate is something to monitor, particularly when put up against Norby's aforementioned .295 ISO in this split.

I'll back Miami's hot hand to win out in this matchup.

J.D. Martinez to Hit a Home Run (+470)

An oldie but a goodie. Let's look for J.D. Martinez to help carry the New York Mets' red-hot momentum into tonight.

Across the last 30 days of play, Martinez has generated a 20.4% barrel rate and 49.0% fly-ball rate. Although afforded only 4 homers in this span and just 16 on the season, he's been hitting the ball really hard. That sets him up for a successful night at the plate opposite DJ Herz.

Herz has started 17 games this campaign and hasn't given up more than four earned runs in any of those. In this day and age, that is very impressive. However, he has not been totally spared from the long ball and gives up a 45.5% fly-ball rate to right-handed hitters.

Martinez, meanwhile, has been his dominant self when offered the platoon advantage. He manages a .218 ISO, .491 SLG, and a resounding 52.7% fly-ball rate versus left-handed pitchers.

That 52.7% fly-ball rate is the fifth-highest in MLB among players who have drawn at least 120 plate appearances in this split. The fly-ball rates on both sides are pretty high, leaving me satisfied with backing J.D. in this spot.

For what it's worth, 10 of his 16 home runs have come at Citi Field despite logging three more at-bats on the road than at home.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.