3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Wednesday 9/11/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Gunnar Henderson to Hit a Home Run (+470)

Gunnar Henderson has belted 36 home runs (sixth-most in MLB) this season and has hit at least one dinger in 24.3% of games played in 2024, which would translate to roughly +310 odds.

Notably, these +470 odds imply only a 17.5% probability. Why is the market so low on Henderson today? It's not like he's been riding the struggle bus of late, as Henderson has generated a 40.0% fly-ball rate, .226 ISO, and 7 home runs across the last 30 days of play.

Perhaps he's in for a tough matchup? No, not really. Not only will the left-handed Henderson be granted the platoon advantage, but he'll do so opposite Nick Pivetta.

Pivetta has surrendered 24 home runs this season, the 13th-most (tied) among 119 MLB starters who have thrown at least 100 innings. To lefties, he cedes a monster 50.3% fly-ball rate (sixth-highest in MLB) and 1.48 home runs per nine frames.

Henderson, meanwhile, massacres right-handed pitchers with a .277 ISO, .569 SLG, and 164 wRC+.

Fenway Park may be viewed as a hellscape for left-handed hitters, but Henderson has gone 6-for-22 at the plate there this season, including two doubles, one triple, and one home run.

Ian Happ to Hit a Home Run (+500)

I've been going back to the well on anti-Bobby Miller bets for his last few starts, and I'm ready to look there again after seeing him give up three home runs in his most recent start.

Miller has been on and off the IL throughout this season, but with every return, the results are the same. He shined in his season debut but has given up at least one home run in all 10 starts since then. He's coughed up eight home runs in four starts since his most recent return to the big leagues.

On the season, Miller has allowed lefties to produce a .574 SLG, 42.6% fly-ball rate, and 3.09 home runs per nine innings. I realize that any sample through only 49 2/3 frames isn't stabilized, but the short-term results are begging us to bet against Miller. That's a particularly intriguing prospect given that no player on the opposing Chicago Cubs owns shorter than +480 odds to hit a home run tonight.

Which Cubbie should we back? I have my eyes on Chicago's home run leader, Ian Happ.

Happ has mustered a 12.5% barrel rate, 40.3% fly-ball rate, .221 ISO, and 151 wRC+ across the last 30 days of play. The switch-hitter can exploit Miller's struggles against guys hitting from the left side of the plate. Plus, Happ's 42.2% fly-ball rate versus northpaws is exciting when put up against Miller's numbers, and a home run friendly Dodger Stadium serves as an ideal kicker.

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Against left-handed batters, Jake Irvin cedes a .456 SLG, 42.5% fly-ball rate, 1.55 home runs per nine innings, and just a 7.7% walk rate.

Seems as if the left-handed Matt Olson has a pretty good matchup on his hands. Olson has produced a 14.6% barrel rate, 41.6% fly-ball rate, 46.1% hard-hit rate, and .226 ISO across the last 30 days of play, so we know he's been crushing the ball.

While Olson has shown some reverse splits this season, that hasn't always been the case, and he still manages a 39.9% fly-ball rate and 40.7% hard-hit rate versus righties.

Plus, the second half of the season has been a different story for Olson. He struggled with a .405 SLG, .176 ISO, and 97 wRC+ in the first half but sports a .505 SLG, .255 ISO, and 126 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Irvin has allowed 9 home runs through his last 32 frames, so I'm bullish on attacking this matchup tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.