3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Tuesday 9/24/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Taylor Ward to Hit a Home Run (+400)

The Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox have a chance to add a win or two to the end of their season total in this series, but it's L.A.'s matchup at the plate that has me looking toward Taylor Ward for a tater this evening.

Ward and the Halos draw Jonathan Cannon on the opposite bump, and Cannon's struggles with the long ball this season have left his HR/9 at 1.35 entering this penultimate start of 2024. That's not a huge surprise with pedestrian flyball (38.5%) and barrel (7.5%) rates allowed.

Meanwhile, L.A.'s outfielder has caught fire in same-handed matchups like this one to close out the year. Ward has torched righties for a 1.055 OPS, .317 ISO, 48.4% flyball rate, and 41.4% hard-hit rate across the last 30 days -- or 93 plate appearances (PAs).

He's one of FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections' favorite picks for a home run on Tuesday. At 0.25 median homers, we'd set Ward's odds for a bomb closer to +352.

Marcus Semien to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Marcus Semien has made a career on quality at-bats. He's morphed into a boom-or-bust slugger over the past 30 days.

In that time, Semien's .284 OBP is pretty rough, but his power numbers look solid. He's posted a .172 ISO with a 50.0% flyball and 39.4% hard-hit rate across his last 88 PAs. Four of those PAs ended in homers, which is the most of any Texas Rangers batter in these parameters.

It appears we're going to want a Texas bat against Mitch Spence and the Oakland Athletics tonight. The sinkerballer has still coughed up five homers in his last eight appearances with a 41.6% hard-hit rate allowed. Oakland's bullpen has also been torched for a 4.89 xFIP over the past month (second-worst in baseball).

We've got Semien projected for 0.20 home runs in tonight's game, which would normally merit odds closer to +452 odds if that's correct.

Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Who would have guessed the San Diego Padres and star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers are battling for the NL West in the last week of the season?

San Diego has a chance to get one step closer in tonight's friendly matchup for their hitters. Landon Knack's sub-4.00 ERA may not be shabby, but he's had huge issues preventing dingers, coughing up 1.77 per nine innings this season with flyball (48.4%) and hard-hit (42.4%) rates allowed that honestly make it seem lucky to not be worse.

The Friars have several bats capable of a round-tripper, but Manny Machado is arguably their most potent threat against righties at present. Machado has 8 homers in his past 97 PAs against them, resulting in a .967 OPS, .319 ISO, 40.0% flyball rate, and 40.0% hard-hit rate during this stretch.

Machado is one of today's highest-projected hitters for a bomb (0.31), so we'd have expected to see his odds to round the bases closer to +275.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.