3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Thursday 9/26/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Ezequiel Tovar to Hit a Home Run (+470)

The Colorado Rockies will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Coors Field on Thursday, and Kyle Gibson is on the bump for the birds. Across 29 starts for the Cardinals this season, Gibson is registering career-worst marks in fly-ball rate (34.5%) and barrel rate (8.6%).

While Gibson has a modest 1.11 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, he surrendered two homers in his last start, and Ezequiel Tovar is a righty who can do damage in same-handed matchups. With the season nearing a close, Tovar is registering a .320 wOBA, 92 wRC+, and .194 ISO versus right-handed pitchers.

Over the last month, Tovar has seen his ISO against righties skyrocket to .253, and he owns a 15.3% barrel rate and 51.4% fly-ball rate in the same 30-day sample. Gibson's pitch mix also works in Tovar's favor as the shortstop for the Rockies is sporting a .286 ISO or better and .428 wOBA or better against Gibson's primary two pitches (sinker and sweeper) versus right-handed batters.

Additionally, Tovar has had previous success against Gibson, going 3-for-3 with a HR in three career plate appearance versus the experienced hurler. Whenever Gibson exits the contest, the bullpen of the Cardinals is also giving up the 11th-most HR/9 (1.1) and 8th-highest HR/FB rate (13.1%) in the last 30 days.

Jake Burger to Hit a Home Run (+400)

The Minnesota Twins are vying for a playoff spot down the stretch, but we'll be siding with a player from the Miami Marlins to go deep in Thursday's matchup. In a year where the Marlins could finish with the worst record in the National League, Jake Burger has been a bright spot.

Amid his second straight year of hitting 29-plus homers, Burger boasts a .345 wOBA, 119 wRC+, and .219 ISO versus righties, compared to a .281 wOBA, 76 wRC+, and .202 ISO against lefties. David Festa is set to start for the Twins on Thursday, and he's permitting a .321 wOBA and 1.45 HR/9 to right-handed hitters.

The metrics over the last month bode well for Burger as he's logging a .363 wOBA, 131 wRC+, and .258 ISO when facing right-handed pitchers during that span. In addition to that, Burger is rocking a formidable 10.0% barrel rate and 48.6% hard-hit rate in the last 30 days.

Along with hitting a homer on Wednesday versus the Twins, Burger now has four long balls across his last eight outings. Festa throws a slider and four-seam fastball a combined 81.3% of the time to right-handed bats, and Burger has a .253 ISO or higher and .336 wOBA or higher when seeing those pitchers versus righties.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Fernando Tatis Jr. is heating up at the perfect time for the San Diego Padres as they are looking to make a push for the NL West title in the final games of the campaign. With the Padres just 3.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers -- who they face on Thursday -- Tatis has hit 7 home runs in his last 13 contests, including one in Wednesday's loss to the Dodgers.

Against right-handed pitching in the last month of baseball, Tatis is posting the 15th-best wOBA (.422), 15th-best wRC+ (178), and 5th-best ISO (.357) in that split. Just to improve our case even further, Tatis is also recording a 16.7% barrel rate, 61.1% hard-hit rate, and 94.7 MPH average exit velocity during that same 30-day sample.

The matchup is a favorable one for Tatis with Walker Buehler expected to start for the Dodgers on Thursday. Buehler has been woeful this season, ranking in the 15th percentile in xERA (4.81), 17th percentile in xBA (.267), and 21st percentile in strikeout rate (19.4%).

On top of that, Buehler has given up 1.98 HR/9 and a 37.5% fly-ball rate to righties through his 15 starts in 2024. Aside from Buehler allowing five home runs across his last four starts, the Dodgers' bullpen has the second-highest fly-ball rate allowed (44.2%) allowed in the last 30 days.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.