3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Thursday 8/8/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jo Adell to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Former top prospect Jo Adell hasn't quiet delivered on the hype that surrounded him in the minors, but he's had something of a mini breakout with the Los Angeles Angels this season.

Though he's still below the Mendoza line for the season, Adell has delivered 16 home runs and 48 RBI through 102 games. But he's done most of his damage versus left-handed pitchers, making him an intriguing target for a home run when he faces Nestor Cortes.

Against southpaws, Adell has a 147 wRC+, .370 ISO, 50% fly-ball rate, and 24.1% HR/FB rate. He blasted seven home runs in 79 plate appearances (8.9%) against lefties compared to just nine in 277 plate appearances (3.2%) versus righties.

Adell continues to sport strong batted ball metrics, including an 80th percentile barrel rate -- the biggest Statcast correlator to HR/FB rate.

That'll play against a fly ball-heavy arm like Nestor Cortes.

For the season, Cortes has a 4.16 ERA, 8.9% barrel rate allowed, and 48.5% fly-ball rate. That fly-ball rate climbs to 52.2% at Yankee Stadium, Statcast's fourth-best venue for right-handed power.

He's surrendered 1.64 HR/9 and a 12.7% HR/FB rate to righties, paving the way for Jo Adell to go yard tonight.

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+240)

Aaron Judge has the shortest odds to hit a home (+240) at FanDuel Sportsbook tonight, but I'm still plenty interested in him going yard in a plus matchup.

Judge has solidified his status as baseball's premier home run threat this season. He leads the majors with 41 homers while ranking first in ISO (.374), HR/FB rate (30.8%), and barrel rate (27.4%).

He's somehow been even better against lefties, against whom his fly-ball rate climbs to 53.1% and his HR/FB rate ticks to 34.6%. At home against southpaws, he's hitting the ball in the air 63% of the time.

Goodluck, Tyler Anderson.

Don't let his 3.05 ERA fool you -- we shouldn't shy away from targeting the lefty.

His ERA indicators (4.19 xERA; 4.81 xFIP; 4.84 SIERA) suggest he's punched over his weight, though Anderson has surrendered only 0.95 HR/9 against righties -- well below the league average (1.14).

Considering his above-average fly-ball rate in that split (42.5%), he's primed to let up a few four-baggers sooner rather than later.

That puts Aaron Judge in a prime spot to add to his league-leading 41 jacks and hit another home run tonight.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+390)

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on an absolute heater since the All-Star break, batting .484 with eight home runs over his last 18 games.

He continues to sport one of the prettiest Baseball Savant pages you'll see, highlighted by a 97th percentile xSLG (.573) and 90th percentile barrel rate (14%).

In a familiar matchup with Dean Kremer, I like him to stay hot and blast another homer.

Kremer has had a rough season, pitching to a 4.39 ERA through 15 starts. He's been highly susceptible to the long ball thanks to a 1.58 HR/9, 43.2% fly-ball rate, and 13.9% HR/FB rate.

The righty has a long, unsuccessful history with Vlad, too. In 25 career at-bats, Guerrero Jr. has four home runs and is running a 1.210 OPS.

In general, Vladdy has performed well against right-handed pitching. He has a 151 wRC+, .198 ISO and 16.3% HR/FB rate in same-handed matchups.

It helps that the Rogers Centre is a top-10 venue for right-handed power, giving me confidence in taking Vlad Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run at +390 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.