3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Thursday 8/15/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+390)

The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will kick off a four-game series at Camden Yards this evening.

Nick Pivetta will be on the bump for Boston. The fly-ball pitcher should create home run opportunities for Baltimore, the team that leads MLB in home runs.

Pivetta cedes a 48.2% fly-ball rate, the fifth-highest rate among MLB throwers who have dealt at least 90 innings. His 31.1% ground ball rate is the second-lowest in the league.

To left-handed bats, Pivetta coughs up a 47.7% fly-ball rate and 1.38 home runs per nine innings. This leads me to Anthony Santander, a switch-hitter who has all the fixings to win this matchup.

Across the last 30 days of play, Santander has been mashing to the tune of a 15.4% barrel rate, .386 ISO (fifth-highest in MLB), and a massive 65.4% fly-ball rate (highest).

He generates a .293 ISO and 59.0% fly-ball rate opposite right-handed pitchers. Pivetta, meanwhile, has surrendered two home runs in three straight games, so it's not like he's gotten things under control as of late.

I'll back Santander to get one over tonight. He's slugged 36 home runs this season -- outdone by only Shohei Ohtani (37) and Aaron Judge (43) -- so these +390 odds are enticing.

Corey Seager to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Corey Seager has produced a 17.5% barrel rate, 58.8% hard-hit rate, 42.5% fly-ball rate, and .276 ISO across the last 30 days of play.

We've seen plenty of pop from him recently. Since the lefty is facing a righty at a hitter-friendly home run park in Globe Life Field -- granted the stadium is kinder to righties -- I'll side with Seager to swing for the fences in this one.

Seager sports a .256 ISO, .544 SLG, and 44.0% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitchers. He's hit 20 of his 26 home runs against this handedness and has been provided 281 at-bats against northpaws and 132 at-bats opposite southpaws, so we know this is the split to target.

Bailey Ober will be on the mound for the visiting Minnesota Twins. He's been pretty great for Minnesota this season, but he allows lefties to go for a 55.3% fly-ball rate and 1.19 home runs per nine innings. Plus, he walks this handedness at just a 4.8% rate -- so Seager should have pitches to hit -- and gets a negative bump when pitching on the road.

Royce Lewis to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Let's stay with the same game and look for Royce Lewis to produce at the plate.

In 70 plate appearances since returning from the IL, Lewis has managed a 13.3% barrel rate, 51.5% fly-ball rate, and a .317 ISO. He's been fantastic against left-handed pitchers this season, owning a .304 BA, .305 ISO, .609 SLG, and 43.2% fly-ball rate in this split.

Lefty Cody Bradford will take the mound tonight for Texas, so I like Lewis' chances to go long.

Bradford has pitched 86 frames in his two-year tenure in the majors. In this span, he has allowed right-handers to hit for a .239 ISO, .477 SLG, 51.7% fly-ball rate, and 2.00 home runs per nine innings.

It hasn't been all bad news for Bradford in his short 2024 campaign, but he's still a fly-ball pitcher (50.0% FB% to righties in 2024) who will take on the tall task of limiting the power-hitting Lewis at a homer-friendly park.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.