3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Sunday 8/25/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Elly De La Cruz to Hit a Home Run (+420)

The Cincinnati Reds' five-tool phenom is showing value in this market today.

Elly De La Cruz isn't as much of a home run hitter (22 on the season) as he is a base-swiper (61 steals in 2024), but that's accounted for with north of four-to-one odds here. Still, De La Cruz is tearing the cover off the ball against right-handed pitching at present, amassing a .968 OPS, .273 ISO, 35.7% flyball rate, and 50.6% hard-hit rate over the past month of play. That's 87 plate appearances (PAs) for the everyday shortstop.

A weak right-hander awaits him today. Luis Ortiz's 3.56 ERA is sparkling, but a 4.20 expected ERA (xERA) tells a more accurate tale with elevated flyball (44.0%) and hard-hit (37.7%) rates behind it. Ortiz has been fortunate to only surrender 1.07 HR/9 because his homer-to-flyball ratio (9.1% HR:FB) is well below the league average (12.0%).

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections have got De La Cruz projected for 0.22 home runs on Sunday. If correct, that would merit closer to +406 odds for a bomb.

Kerry Carpenter to Hit a Home Run (+390)

I wrote up Kerry Carpenter in Friday's homer picks, but a pair of loud outs in that contest followed by a left-handed Chicago White Sox starter on Saturday still have the outfielder searching for his first round-tripper since Wednesday.

That's a decent drought considering how hard he's smashing righties at present. Over the last 30 days, Carpenter has tallied a .979 OPS, .400 ISO, 55.8% flyball rate, and 44.4% hard-hit rate against them. That would sooner fit in the middle of the New York Yankees' lineup than the lowly Detroit Tigers' order.

Concluding a weekend series with the Chicago White Sox, Carpenter faces a struggling right-hander on Sunday. Jonathan Cannon might actually be the Pale Hose's best righty at present, which says more about them than Cannon considering the lanky hurler's 4.59 xERA, 7.9% barrel rate, and 1.35 HR/9 allowed. Chicago always comes with the added bonus of the league's worst bullpen (4.89 xFIP in the last 30 days) to follow.

Our projections love Carpenter today, forecasting him for 0.31 home runs. We'd set his odds to homer closer to +275 given that expected average.

Jhonkensy Noel to Hit a Home Run (+390)

This is the first time I've written up "Big Christmas" in this column. Against lefties, it certainly won't be the last.

Jhonkensy Noel was called up on June 26th, but he's really started to break out recently. At this stage of his career, he's a platoon outfielder for southpaws, but the 6'3" mountain of a man has done that well with a 1.346 OPS, .591 ISO, 47.4% flyball rate, and 42.4% hard-hit rate against lefties in the past 30 days (or 23 PAs).

He's gone yard twice in the past 30 days, which suppressed this line a bit. Nonetheless, Cody Bradford seems like an excellent target for him to keep it going, per the lefty's 49.6% flyball and 8.9% barrel rate allowed this season. Bradford's low rate of HR/9 allowed (1.05) is more luck than skill with an 8.3% HR:FB.

We've got Noel projected for 0.25 big flys on Sunday, which sneaks into value range. We'd project him closer to +352 for a home run if assuming that median is correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.