3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Saturday 8/31/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Rhys Hoskins to Hit a Home Run (+330)

Even without a defined Cincinnati Reds starter, our projections are taking the plunge on Rhys Hoskins for a bomb today in MLB's friendliest park for homers.

Fernando Cruz is Cincinnati's listed starter, but having maxed out at 42 pitches all year, it's a bullpen day for them. With only three left-handed arms available and Cruz (a righty) starting, it's worth noting Hoskins has a stellar .198 ISO, 48.1% flyball rate, and 38.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this year, and Cruz (44.6% hard-hit rate allowed) is no stranger to hard contact.

Our daily MLB projections expect 0.36 home runs from the Milwaukee Brewers' first baseman in today's game, which would merit +231 odds for one if correct.

Royce Lewis to Hit a Home Run (+350)

I'm going to dearly miss this Jose Berrios season in this column when it's over.

On the back of a 5.08 expected ERA (xERA), 37.5% flyball rate, and 42.2% hard-hit rate allowed, Berrios has coughed up 1.53 HR/9 this season. As always, the added bonus of Berrios is his weak bullpen behind him; the Toronto Blue Jays have the fifth-highest bullpen xFIP this season (4.42).

Who better to target on the Minnesota Twins for a bomb than Royce Lewis? Though injuries have marred a good chunk of his 2024 campaign, Lewis has crushed righties for an .852 OPS, .308 ISO, 45.4% flyball rate, and 36.1% hard-hit rate across 144 plate appearances (PAs).

We've got Lewis at 0.27 projected home runs on Saturday, implying we'd set the line closer to +323 for a bomb.

Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+320)

We'll close the night with "Big Dumper".

Cal Raleigh has a solid matchup for his 28th long ball of the season tonight in Angel Stadium, baseball's seventh-best park for home runs. Raleigh and the Seattle Mariners face the Los Angeles Angels, who will send lefty Tyler Anderson to toe the slab. Anderson has ceded 1.08 HR/9 this season because of a fortunate 8.5% homer-to-flyball ratio -- not his elevated flyball (42.6%) and barrel (8.1%) rates allowed. The Angels' bullpen also has the worst xFIP in baseball this season (4.59).

As for the M's' catcher, Raleigh has crushed lefties for 11 of those 28 bombs. He's posted a .279 ISO, 67.4% (!) flyball rate, and 36.0% hard-hit rate against southpaws in 136 PAs. There may not be a better lefty power specialist going at present.

We've got Raleigh projected for the second-most home runs of any player in action today (0.38). That projection would merit odds of +216 for a dinger if correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.