3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 9/13/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+280)

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are both in the top five of isolated power (ISO) while also being in the top eight of home runs per game (Yanks hold the highest mark). With that said, it's only right to take someone to go yard in this matchup.

Of the starters on the mound, Tanner Houck looks the most vulnerable. He's in the bottom 18% in hard-hit rate allowed while Clarke Schmidt is in the top 29% of the category. Houck has posted a single-game xFIP of 4.18 or higher in four of his last six appearances, and it's been above 5.00 in three of the six starts. Despite some of the concerning Savant numbers (bottom 22% in average exit velocity allowed), Houck doesn't allow many homers, with a 0.60 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) complemented by a 24.0% fly-ball rate and 9.2% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio (HR/FB).

However, Houck's HR/FB has spiked over his last six starts, especially against right-handed hitters; it sits at 18.2% in split. If we can find a right-hander who can get some serious lift on the ball, we are cooking. Fortunately for us, New York is stacked with sluggers. We can back one of the best in all of baseball, Aaron Judge.

Despite being the overwhelming favorite to win the American League MVP (-3000), Judge has been ice cold in September, batting .195 while not jacking a tater since August 25th. Even with the drought, Judge still holds the most homers in MLB (51), 4 ahead of Shohei Ohtani's 47. It's only a matter of time before Judge starts crushing big flies once again. The matchup is present against the Red Sox.

First off, the Yankees' superstar has enjoyed success against Houck with a .308 batting average over 13 career at-bats. As previously mentioned, a righty who can lift the ball is ideal considering Houck's recent numbers. Judge does this emphatically with a 45.7% fly-ball rate (tied for the 15th-highest). Believe it or not, Judge's fly-ball rate is still pretty good over the last month at 42.5% paired with an elite 29.0% HR/FB rate, even in his current HR drought.

Bringing our pick to home plate, Judge hits better than .350 against sinkers (.408) and splitters (.357) -- which are two of Houck's three most-used pitches.

Carlos Santana to Hit a Home Run (+500)

Taking a batter on the Minnesota Twins to launch one over the fence is an appealing idea with the Cincinnati Reds putting Julian Aguiar on the bump. The rookie hurler has only five starts under his belt and is letting up a 5.79 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 6.10 xFIP. The success for sluggers has been there, as well, with Aguiar giving up five homers in five appearances.

Our DFS projections have Matt Wallner demanding attention with the second-highest median home run projection (0.42) on the main slate. However, I'm looking elsewhere due to Wallner's +255 odds to jack a big fly; keep in mind he's batting just .237 this month while launching three homers in the split.

Carlos Santana is a great option for the matchup. Projections are still suggesting good value as Santana's 0.24 median projected homers carries a 21.3% implied probability for at least one homer (or +370 odds), if correct. For reference, his current +500 line is 16.7% implied odds for a home run.

We have the value box checked, but what about the actual matchup on the field? Santana has the recent production with three dingers and .531 SLG in September. Most importantly, he's a switch hitter who can take advantage of Aguiar's struggles against lefties.

Aguiar is carrying an alarming 3.5 HR/9 (!) against left-handed hitters paired with a 58.8% fly-ball rate and 20.0% HR/FB in the split. Against right-handed hurlers, Santana has a 16.7% HR/FB rate in September. Plus, he already has a 46.8% fly-ball rate when facing righties this season.

Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+400)

The Seattle Mariners' Cal Raleigh has been blistering in September, posting a .317/.408/.610 slash line, compared to his .215/.307/.431 slash line for the season. The absurd .610 SLG during the span has directly led to home run success (three over the last 12 days). Will the streak continue against the Texas Rangers?

Jacob deGrom will be making his first MLB start since April 28th of 2023 following Tommy John surgery. We are talking about one of the game's most dominant pitchers when healthy, holding a 1.59 SIERA and 1.53 xFIP in his last full season. deGrom is a terrifying prospect for batters, but this is his first MLB start in about a year and a half. We should see a shortened outing, shifting our focus to Texas' bullpen.

Finding success during deGrom's appearance will be tough, but Raleigh hits .293 on the season against sliders. This should give him a swinging chance against deGrom's four-seam fastball and slider combo. Once the bullpen takes over, this is when we could see Raleigh tank another one over the fence.

Over the last month, the Rangers' bullpen is tied for the 11th-highest HR/9 (1.0), tied for the 10th-highest fly-ball rate (41.0%), and carries the 16th-highest HR/FB (10.0%). Raleigh has a 54.3% fly-ball rate over the last month, and his HR/FB spikes to 16.0% when facing right-handed hurlers in the split. Most of Texas' bullpen are righties, aiding Raleigh's chances for a big fly.

Projections have Raleigh recording 0.29 median homers, which, if correct, holds 25.2% implied probability (or +297 odds) for one tater. That's terrific value with Raleigh's +400 line carrying only 20.0% implied odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.