3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 8/9/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+350)

One of our favorite targets for a homer is back on Friday's agenda.

Jose Berrios has been a common victim for the bomb squad, allowing 1.66 homers per nine (HR/9) this season. Berrios has let up an elevated flyball (38.5%) and hard-hit rate (43.6%) behind that, so we're long past the point of improvement as the calendar has shifted to August.

Recently, targeting Berrios has been even more fruitful thanks to those behind him. The Toronto Blue Jays have the second-highest reliever xFIP (5.10) and second-highest hard-hit rate allowed from relievers (36.8%) across baseball over the past 30 days.

Enter one of the surprise home run hitters in baseball this season, Brent Rooker. The Oakland Athletics' top slugger is tied for eighth in MLB with 28 bombs, and he's curiously gone without one in the last four games despite ripping the cover off the ball in the past month against righties. In this period, he's posted a 1.094 OPS, .412 ISO, 46.3% flyball rate, and 42.6% hard-hit rate amidst a whopping sample of 75 plate appearances (PAs).

He won't be in a drought for long with those contact rates, and our daily MLB projections agree. We've got Rooker pegged for 0.38 homers in tonight's game, which, if correct, would merit roughly +216 odds to enjoy a bit of touch-'em-all time.

Marcell Ozuna to Hit a Home Run (+280)
Austin Riley to Hit a Home Run (+300)

After examining the entire slate, filled with weather issues and aces, I decided to double dip at Coors Field, MLB's friendliest park for hitters.

That's because Tanner Gordon is on the bump, and that's been great news for opposing hitters. Gordon's 5.01 expected ERA (xERA), 39.7% flyball rate, and 40.8% hard-hit rate allowed are a cocktail for home runs, and he's coughed them up (2.53 HR/9). Righties, specifically, have five of the six homers against him at a rate of 4.82 HR/9.

The Atlanta Braves' struggles to hit right-handers this season (96 wRC+ in the past 30 days) is a mystery, but you can't blame Marcell Ozuna and Austin Riley for them -- especially not recently.

In this split over the past month, Ozuna has pummeled orthodox pitches for a 1.084 OPS, .365 ISO, 40.3% flyball rate, and 43.5% hard-hit rate across 95 PAs. He leads all players in our projections at 0.47 home runs in tonight's game, so even though these odds are short, they may not be short enough.

In turn, his teammate at third has arguably put up better numbers for a longball in some respects. Riley has homered in consecutive games, which is less of a surprise considering superior 44.1% flyball and 47.5% hard-hit rates in his last 89 PAs. Riley's lower OPS (.880) in this time -- and superstition around home run streaks -- might be the reason for longer odds on a round-tripper. We've got Riley at 0.30 median dingers projected, implying roughly +286 odds for one.

After much deliberation on which player was better relative to odds, I decided to take both. We'll profit if one goes yard, and Gordon's six innings of one-run ball last time out create the ultimate "sell-high" spot entering his unfriendly home confines.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.