3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 8/30/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+340)

The New York Yankees are at home against Erick Fedde and the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.

Juan Soto has a .309 ISO and 40.6% fly-ball rate at home, and he's hit 18 of his 37 home runs at Yankee Stadium -- the third-best power venue for lefties, according to Statcast Park Factors. With a plus matchup against his preferred power split, this is a nice spot to target Juan Soto to hit a home run at +340 odds.

Soto has mashed righties to the tune of a 187 wRC+ and .305 ISO this season, and he has a 26.6% HR/FB rate in that split.

Fedde's 1.15 HR/9 is sound, but he's surrendered a fly-ball rate north of 40%.

On top of that, Fedde has taken a step back over the second half. Since the All-Star break, opposing hitters have hit eight long-balls in seven starts against him. He's surrendered a 49.5% fly-ball rate and 9.9% barrel rate over that span.

Soto also carries the day's third-best home run projection, according to our MLB projections. That makes him someone to target for a yabo in an advantageous home matchup.

Wyatt Langford to Hit a Home Run (+480)

Two days after Wyatt Langford blasted his eighth home run of the season, I think we can turn back to him to leave the yard in a matchup with the highly vulnerable JP Sears.

The lefty has a 4.35 ERA on the year, and he's surrendered 1.31 HR/9 after giving up 1.78 HR/9 in 2023. Like last season, Sears is allowing high barrel (9.8%) and hard-hit (39.7%) rates, and he continues to give up fly-balls at an above-average clip (45.4%).

That's led to him surrendering four homers over his last three starts -- a number Langford can add to tonight.

Langford has posted solid quality-of-contact metrics in his rookie season, including an 8.4% barrel rate and 42.9% hard-hit rate. Those have jumped to 11.2% and 45.9%, respectively, since the All-Star break. He's homered only three times during that stretch but continues to perform well against southpaws.

Against left-handed pitchers, Langford has a .921 OPS, .264 ISO, and 154 wRC+. His fly-ball rate is north of 50% in the split, resulting in a rock-solid 13.8% HR/FB rate. Four of his eight homers have come against lefties despite facing nearly four times as many righties.

It doesn't hurt that Globe Life Field is the third-best venue for right-handed power.

Altogether, this is a lovely number to grab Langford at given his stellar left-handed splits and plus matchup.

Adley Rutschman to Hit a Home Run (+500)

I'd be remiss if I didn't tout a member of the Baltimore Orioles to go yard tonight. They're playing at Coors Field, after all.

And while Anthony Santander (+280 odds to hit a home run) and Gunnar Henderson (+350) are appealing options, getting +500 odds for Adley Rutschman to hit a home run is too good to pass up with a lefty on the bump.

That lefty is Austin Gomber, and he's someone we can target for a long-ball. Gomber's surrendered 1.70 HR/9 this season, and his 4.70 ERA speaks for itself. He's allowed a 10.3% barrel rate and 40.8% hard-hit rate overall -- plus, he's been extra-vulnerable to righties.

Against right-handed hitters, Gomber has pitched to a 4.60 xFIP and given up a 40.2% fly-ball rate. Opposing righties are slugging .477 against him.

That set up the switch-hitting Rutschman for success. Adley has mauled southpaws to the tune of a .933 OPS, .195 ISO, and 165 wRC+. He's posted a 15.2% HR/FB rate and blasted 7 of his 18 home runs against that split.

In such a juicy matchup, Rutschman has the upside for a dinger tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.