MLB Best Bets and Home Run Picks for Saturday 9/14/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves

Dodgers +0.5 in First 5 Innings (-140)

While wanting to leave the Los Angeles Dodgers' league-worst bullpen by xFIP over the past 30 days (4.69) out of the matter, L.A. should control this game early.

This one is primed to be a pitching duel between Jack Flaherty of the Dodgers and Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves. Flaherty's 3.23 expected ERA (xERA), 30.8% strikeout rate, and 34.3% hard-hit rate allowed are right there with the NL Cy Young odds-on favorite. The problem? Only one of these offenses is good in this split.

The Dodgers have pummeled southpaws like Sale for a .798 team OPS (second-best in MLB) over the past month of play. On the flip side, the Bravos are baseball's eighth-worst offense against righties by the same measure (.688). All else fairly equal, the Dodgers should be heavy favorites to be ahead after five.

Dodgers First 5 Innings Moneyline (+106) was a consideration, but I'll take the security of a run when scoring should be tough against both pitchers in the ATL tonight.

Milwaukee Brewers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 8.5 Runs (-114)

In MLB's seventh-best hitter's park, I've got to side with offense considering I'm thoroughly unimpressed with both starters.

The Milwaukee Brewers will send out Tobias Myers on a stellar run. Myers has 18 strikeouts and just 3 earned runs allowed over 11.2 innings in September, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see his 2.93 ERA reverse course quickly. Myers' xERA (4.21) is much higher with a below-average expected batting average allowed (.250 xBA) and hard-hit rate allowed (40.0%) behind it.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt's 4.21 ERA is deemed "unlucky" by his 3.68 xERA, but his peripherals are poor, too. Pfaadt's .249 xBA, 23.3% K rate, and 39.9% hard-hit rate allowed are all fairly close to Myers' -- and the wrong side of the league average.

The best case for this over is that these clubs smash righties, posting top-10 team OPS figures for the season. After just three total runs in last night's contest, expect at least one of these sleeping giants to wake up.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+250)

I've had this matchup circled for a while when putting Brent Rooker on the #BombSquad plenty this summer -- and targeting Chris Flexen plenty with it.

Though the Chicago White Sox's righty has been on better behavior recently, Flexen's 1.38 HR/9 allowed make him one of the premier targets for a bomb in MLB. It's no fluke when he's also letting up an extreme flyball (45.5%) rate with an average hard-hit rate allowed (37.5%).

Meanwhile, the Oakland Athletics' breakout outfielder has notched 36 bombs this season, and he's kept his prowess in same-handed matchups rolling into September. Rooker has compiled a 1.045 OPS, .312 ISO, 49.1% flyball rate, and 34.0% hard-hit rate against righties in the past 30 days.

Per our daily MLB projections, Rooker is the likeliest candidate to homer in baseball today with a forecast of 0.45 home runs. If correct, that would merit closer to +176 odds for a long ball.

Ezequiel Tovar to Hit a Home Run (+420)

I'd be remiss to not include Coors Field when we're talking dingers, right?

There certainly are a few on the table in this matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies on Saturday. Most might pick on Colorado lefty Kyle Freeland, but what if I told you Freeland allows fewer HR/9 at Coors Field (0.83) than Chicago's Jameson Taillon does on the road (1.44)? It pays to research.

Taillon's homer issues aren't exclusive to the road, per elevated flyball (40.6%) and hard-hit (37.0%) rates allowed. That gaudy number has even come with a below-average 10.8% homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB).

Enter one of the Rockies' premier bats against righties at the moment, Ezequiel Tovar. Tovar has an .827 OPS, .288 ISO, 52.0% flyball rate, and 50.0% hard-hit rate against righties in the past month, yet that contact has produced just four bombs.

Our projections' expected forecast of 0.22 home runs would put him closer to +406 for a bomb against Taillon. He's certainly due for more swinging it like that in this split.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.