3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Friday 8/2/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as the guiding light for finding value, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Best Home Run Props

Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run (+285)

From top-shelf ace and All-Star to home run target. It's been quite the fall from grace for Kevin Gausman.

Gausman's 2024 has been one to forget, posting an ugly 4.85 expected ERA (xERA), 40.3% flyball rate, and 41.7% hard-hit rate allowed through 119.2 innings to this stage. It's no mystery why he's permitted 1.20 HR/9, which is a bit fortunate considering a homer-to-flyball ratio (11.2% HR:FB) well below the MLB average (12.9%).

The New York Yankees are hosting Gausman's Toronto Blue Jays on Friday, and the Bronx Bombers aren't exactly what a struggling pitcher loves to see. That's especially the case when Aaron Judge is on a two-game streak without a homer, and Juan Soto's drought is at four.

I'll take Soto at the longer number when his flyball (49.1%) and hard-hit (41.8%) rates are both better than Judge's against righties over the last 30 days. Both still have solid numbers across the board, and Soto also has added a 235 wRC+ and .418 ISO in the advanced stats department thanks to the hard contact.

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections have got Soto projected for 0.36 homers on Friday. It won't be long before he -- or his teammate -- knocks one over the fence again.

Royce Lewis to Hit a Home Run (+320)

The Minnesota Twins have to be delighted to have Royce Lewis back in the fold.

Lewis has just 11 plate appearances (PAs) against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, but a lofty flyball rate (62.5%) suggest he's well on his way to hitting tanks again soon. The third baseman has posted an absurd .923 OPS, .387 ISO, 44.8% flyball rate, and 37.9% hard-hit rate against right-handers in a larger sample of 81 PAs for the entire season.

Most of the Minnesota order is in a spot to succeed tonight when facing Davis Martin and the Chicago White Sox. Martin is just 2.2 innings into his MLB season, but the last time we saw him in MLB, he posted a 4.71 xERA, 38.8% flyball rate, and 37.2% hard-hit rate in 2022.

It shouldn't be a long outing for him, turning things over to a Pale Hose bullpen with the league's third-highest xFIP over the past 30 days (5.05). Zoinks.

We've got Lewis projected for 0.36 round-trippers in this one -- most on the Twins. If correct, that would merit roughly +231 odds for one.

Marcus Semien to Hit a Home Run (+480)

The Texas Rangers have a great matchup for homers today despite not being an amazing team for them.

Kutter Crawford's potential to permit dingers might be a bit masked if you just check his 3.60 ERA. Crawford's xERA (4.09) is much higher, and he's allowed 1.60 HR/9 to this stage. Even worse, the right-handers ranks a paltry 15th percentile or worse across MLB in both barrel rate (10.9%) and groundball rate (35.6%), so the homer data is legitimate.

Of those on the odds board at FanDuel, I best fancy Marcus Semien at nearly five-to-one. He's mashed in this split for an .894 OPS and .234 ISO over the past 30 days with a flyball (35.8%) and hard-hit rate (34.8%) rate that make the grade -- even if not spectacular.

Plus, from the leadoff spot, he'll have as many cracks at Crawford or Red Sox relievers in this one. The latter have combined for a 5.16 bullpen xFIP (second-worst in MLB) over the past month.

We've got Semien projected for the second-most homers on his team (0.20) despite Texas' fourth-longest odds, and that implied median projection would merit +452 odds to hit a home run if correct.

All customers get a 30% Profit Boost to use on a 3+ leg Same Game Parlay wager on any MLB game happening August 2nd! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.