MLB Best Bets and Home Run Picks for Saturday 9/7/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

Twins Over 4.5 Runs (+106)

While learning a majority of this 2024 season to not doubt the Kansas City Royals against any right-hander, the Minnesota Twins are well-positioned for a flurry of runs today.

Minnesota has pummeled righties for a .746 team OPS since the break (11th in MLB), and a weak one awaits them Saturday evening. Alec Marsh has been K.C.'s weak cog in the rotation.

Marsh's 4.70 ERA is very real, per a 4.91 expected ERA (xERA) behind it. The righty's .267 expected batting average allowed (xBA), 43.0% flyball rate, and 41.7% hard-hit rate all rank in the bottom 35% of MLB qualifiers. Plus, when he departs, the Crowns have struggled to a 4.23 reliever xFIP in the past 30 days (seventh-worst in baseball).

numberFire forecasts 5.37 median runs for the Twins in today's contest. I'll happily take the plus money.

Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals

Mariners Moneyline (-126)

The only reason I believe the Seattle Mariners aren't a larger favorite in today's game is their season-long issues with righties, but this can be a "what have you done for me lately?" sport down the stretch in September.

Lately, the Mariners (.722 OPS against righties in the past 30 days) and St. Louis Cardinals (.732) are pretty similar offenses in the right-handed split they share this evening. We have zero doubt who is the better starting pitcher, though.

That's Seattle's Logan Gilbert, whose 3.18 xERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, and tiny 4.7% walk rate all rank in the 75th percentile or better across baseball. St. Louis' Kyle Gibson would sooner settle for "not terrible" with an identical 4.91 xERA to K.C.'s Marsh. His mistake rates with walks (8.9% rate) and barrels (9.0%) won't help matters.

nF projects Seattle to win 55.2% of the time tonight. I'd hop on this line now when expecting inflation toward -140 throughout the day.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Willy Adames to Hit a Home Run (+370)

The Milwaukee Brewers are in a great spot to rebound from last night's 3-2 loss that came in pretty devastating fashion.

Milwaukee draws Ty Blach from the Colorado Rockies' side today, and Blach's 2024 has been nothing short of a nightmare if his 6.87 xERA, .316 xBA, and 11.1% K rate are any indication. In fact, those are all the very worst marks among MLB qualifiers. Plus, Colorado's bullpen (4.54 reliever xFIP in last 30 days) hasn't been at its best lately.

While we could look at team props here, as well, I'm soloing out Willy Adames for a bomb. In the last 30 days, Adames has crushes southpaws to the tune of a .188 ISO, 55.6% flyball rate, and 55.6% hard-hit rate. He's been more of a power threat than an on-base threat (.328 wOBA) in this period.

Our daily MLB projections have noticed, expecting 0.27 round-trippers from the shortstop at a median. We'd set his line closer to +323 for a home run.

Mookie Betts to Hit a Home Run (+430)

While one notable Los Angeles Dodgers bat just joined the 45-45 club, I don't want to forget about another in tonight's matchup.

Against right-handers at present, Mookie Betts is hanging with Shohei Ohtani in many key power categories yet has double Ohtani's odds to homer (+200) on FanDuel tonight. In the past month of play, Mookie has amassed a .920 OPS, .293 ISO, 46.7% flyball rate, and 42.2% hard-hit rate against righties over 63 plate appearances (PAs).

A weak one awaits the L.A. Bashers today. Gavin Williams of the Cleveland Guardians has defied math to post just 0.91 HR/9 allowed this season with elevated flyball (38.6%) and hard-hit (43.1%) rates in 59.1 innings pitched. Betts, Ohtani, and the Boys in Blue could change that in a hurry.

We've got Betts projected for 0.28 homers in tonight's game, which would merit closer to +310 odds for a long ball if correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.