3 Best WNBA Bets and Player Props for Mercury vs. Aces in Game 2

Even within a single WNBA game, we've got countless betting options.

You can ride with traditional markets such as spreads or totals or bet on which players will erupt via the player-prop markets.

Which bets stand out for tonight's matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Las Vegas Aces?

Let's run through the top options in FanDuel Sportsbook's WNBA betting odds, leaning on advanced stats from the WNBA to help us find an edge in the market.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes via the official WNBA player news wire.

Mercury at Aces Betting Picks

Aces -2.5 (-112)

Game 1 wasn't quite as close as a three-point margin -- nor a Phoenix cover -- would suggest.

The Mercury (14) doubled up the Aces (7) in turnovers and shot seven fewer free throws. Phoenix (35) and Vegas (33) were pretty identical on the glass despite the Aces playing plenty of Dana Evans and Jewell Loyd in three-guard lineups. The difference? A Phoenix night from the three (38.9%) that remains uncharacteristic.

In the regular season, Phoenix was eighth in effective field goal rate (50.2 eFG%). They've posted a 48.7 eFG% in the playoffs, squeaking by the Lynx in large part to the Napheesa Collier injury. Las Vegas (53.7 eFG%) has shot the ball better in the postseason and also did so in the regular season (50.6 eFG%).

If that part of the game is equal, the Aces are the better team -- at least until this one shifts to "The Valley".

DRatings has this spread at 3.2 points.

NaLyssa Smith Over 6.5 Points (-114)

Man, this prop bet is giving me flashbacks to something you see more in the playoffs on the men's side.

Becky Hammon rode the hot hand in Game 1. Dana Evans -- a somewhat erratic, inconsistent contributor -- had it going on the big stage. She canned five of six triples, cutting into Na'Lyssa Smith's playing time substantially. She logged only 16 minutes despite a 25.1 minutes per game average in the postseason up to that point.

I just don't expect Evans to play over Smith, the team's leader in postseason eFG% (63.5%), on a normal night when the latter also provides elite defense and cost Las Vegas a first-round pick earlier this season.

Smith is averaging 8.3 PPG in the playoffs including Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. She should return to normal work if Evans doesn't go scorched Earth again, and that's what Rotowire is expecting. They're projecting 7.8 points in 24.0 minutes.

Alyssa Thomas Under 9.5 Assists (-140)

Phoenix shot 38.9% from three, scored 86 points, and Alyssa Thomas still missed this number? It's probably too high against a defense this good.

Las Vegas allowed the second-fewest assists per game (4.0) to opposing forwards in the regular season. Smith and A'ja Wilson's size and length check out anecdotally with that information. It doesn't help, either, that the Aces (94.8 pace in the postseason) are a bit of a shift down in tempo from Phoenix's usual postseason pace (95.4).

If you carry the sample back into the regular season as they chased a playoff berth, A.T. has posted double-digit helpers in just 5 of her last 16 games. A big part of that is just needing her to score in clutch spots. Her 26.2% postseason usage rate towers over the regular-season mark (23.8%).

Rotowire projects Thomas to post just 8.6 assists in 36 minutes. She missed the hook in Game 1 despite a warm night from the field for the Mercury, so the under is easily the preferred side in Game 2.

You can also download our free 2025 WNBA playoffs printable bracket to follow along all postseason.

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Which bets stand out to you for tonight's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest WNBA betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.