3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Vikings at Rams

Week 8 will kick off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Minnesota Vikings (5-1) and Los Angeles Rams (2-4).

The Vikings will look to rebound after grabbing their first L of the season this past Sunday. They come in as 2.5-point road favorites in a game that's showing a gaudy 48.5-point over/under. Minnesota will need to capitalize on this soft-ish matchup, as the current AFC North standings feature a brutal four-way race, and all of their division counterparts are favored in Week 8.

Cooper Kupp has been lifted off the injured reserve and will play his first game since Week 2. There have also been reports that Los Angeles could get Puka Nacua back tonight, too, though we'll have to wait and see if and what capacity that would look like.

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Thursday night game.

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Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Justin Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards (+148)

Let's start off strong and look for the NFL's best wide receiver to notch 100-plus yards in primetime.

Here's how Justin Jefferson's yardage output has looked through six games: 59, 113, 81, 85, 92, and 81 receiving yards. The steady output has been encouraging, though he's hit that magic number of 100 yards just once. However, all six of Jefferson's games have come against teams that rank in the top 12 of schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire's metrics. It's impressive that he hasn't put up a dud in the face of this tough competition, and he'll see a defense today that will be his easiest challenge of the season by a significant margin.

The Rams come into this one with a 23rd-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. They're letting up the sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.9) in spite of facing against meh competition.

The Vikings, meanwhile, tout the 12th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass offense. Jefferson enjoys a massive 33.3% target share, 44.6% air yards share, and averages 4.5 downfield targets per game.

A close spread (2.5), high total (48.5), and friendly matchup all lead me to targeting Jefferson's alternate yardage prop at +148 odds. Our NFL player projections forecast him to log 97.53 yards in this one, so the +148 odds are appealing.

Aaron Jones Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

We're asking Minnesota's top two guys to gain a ton of ground tonight, but I can't stray away from Aaron Jones' rushing prop.

Jones is averaging 14.2 carries, 73.8 yards, and 5.2 yards per attempt. He showcased his efficiency last week, rushing for 93 yards via 6.6 yards per carry.

He's rushed for at least 93 yards in four out of six games this season, so clearing 67.5 yards would be nothing new for him.

Beyond Jones' total output thus far, there are two main reasons why I like him in this spot tonight. For starters, the Rams enter with a 29th-ranked schedule-adjusted rush defense, one that has surrendered 4.7 yards per carry (eighth-most) and 151.7 rushing yards per game (third-most). They've allowed an opposing lead back to gain a minimum of 73 yards in their six competitions thus far, and all but two of them have gone for 90-plus.

Secondly, Minnesota may encounter a positive game script tonight. While the close spread could suggest otherwise, the Vikes are nonetheless favored on the road, and our Riley Thomas likes the Vikings to cover. A positive game script correlates to more touches for Jones in the second half, further raising his stock in this market.

Matthew Stafford to Throw an Interception (+106)

Minnesota comes in with the second-best schedule-adjusted defense, including a second-ranked rush D and third-ranked pass defense.

The Vikings lead the league in blitz rate (42.5%) and pressure rate (32.4%), which harbors bad news for Matthew Stafford. According to PFF, Stafford has the second-worst passing grade among qualified QBs when facing pressure. Worse, the Rams come in with a 26th-ranked offensive line.

Stafford's troubles against pressure have led to him throwing an interception in all but two of his games this campaign. Minnesota's heavy utilization of the blitz has allowed them to garner a league-high 11 interceptions despite playing one fewer game than 21 teams.

Stafford has +106 odds to throw an interception tonight, and I'm quite keen on these odds considering his tendency for turnovers and the brutal competition that awaits. He figures to throw the ball plenty in this one, both because the Rams are a pass-happy offense and the potential for a negative game script.

I like the Vikings to log their 12th pick of the season tonight.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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