2 Best Bets for Thursday Night Football: Vikings at Rams

The Minnesota Vikings had their five-game winning streak snapped last week with a 31-29 loss against the Detroit Lions. Minnesota will pay a visit to the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football, which initially seems like a good bounce-back opportunity considering the Rams' 2-4 record and 1-5 mark against the spread (ATS).

However, L.A. is expected to have a major reinforcement this week with star wideout Cooper Kupp returning to the field. The Vikings should have added manpower, too, for T.J. Hockenson (knee), Blake Cashman (toe), and guard Dalton Risner (back) all have a chance to return from injury.

With that said, are the favored Vikings due for a win as three-point favorites, or will the Rams deliver as the home team?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Thursday night game.

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Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Vikings at Rams

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Rams Under 21.5 Points (+116)

Giving up 31 points, 11.2 yards per passing attempt, and 5.3 yards per rushing attempt to Detroit in Week 7 was a disaster for this fearsome Vikings defense. Yet the unit remains one of the league's best, ranking as the best schedule-adjusted total defense, third-best adjusted pass defense, and second-best adjusted run defense.

The Rams are also a far less imposing group than the Lions, ranked as the 13th-worst adjusted offense while Detroit is 3rd-best in the category. Plus, Los Angeles can't replicate some of what the Lions have -- one of which is the best offensive line in football. For reference, the Rams have Pro Football Focus' second-worst pass blocking grade.

For a team that carries the league's 10th-highest pass play rate, this is far from ideal. Matthew Stafford has also struggled when pressured, carrying a 53.7 PFF passing grade when blitzed and a 30.5 passing grade when pressured. Minnesota's defense is the most blitz-happy unit in the league and hold the eighth-highest sack rate in the NFL. It's not out of the question for L.A. to throw a little more often with Kupp healthy, allowing the Vikings to ratchet up the pressure even more.

Los Angeles quietly holds the 11th-best adjusted run offense. However, the Rams are logging only 4.0 yards per carry (6th-fewest) paired with the 10th-lowest run play rate. Minnesota is giving up only 4.0 yards per rushing attempt (fifth-fewest) and 80.0 rushing yards per contest (second-fewest). Across the board, this is not a rushing offense that's capable of carrying the load on Thursday.

Despite only 19.0 points per game (10th-fewest), L.A. holds a 23.5 total for this game. The Rams have surpassed 20 points in only one of six games -- I'll happily take that under. The alternate line of under 21.5 points (+116) is even worth jumping on. numberFire's game projections have the Rams scoring 19.2 points while MasseyRatings are forecasting Los Angeles with 20 points.

The Vikings still possess one of the most feared defenses across the NFL; Week 7's letdown could have more to do with how good the Lions' offense is. While Kupp's return is helpful, one wide receiver probably won't make everything sunshine and rainbows for the Rams' stumbling offense.

Vikings -3 (+100)

Sticking with the Minnesota theme, give me the Vikings to also cover the three-point spread. With about 90% of the public on the Minnesota spread, there's some obvious hesitation here. I've even seen a good number of Rams moneyline picks floating around on social media. But formulating a pick mostly due to the public is not my mojo.

Kupp's return is a major bullet point for this game, but Los Angeles still logged only 15.0 PPG, 5.0 yards per play, and 7.0 yards per passing attempt over the first two weeks of play when Kupp was available. Kupp played in only 52.0% of snaps due to injury in Week 2, but the season-opening results are still telling. The Rams weren't that productive against the Lions, whose defense is surely not on the same level as the Vikings thus far.

It's difficult to not wonder about where this team's head is at, as well. Kupp is firmly in the center of trade talks, which included the Kansas City Chiefs passing up on an offer. There isn't much tangible evidence out there right now, but the rumor mill is alive and well surrounding Stafford as a potential trade piece, too. This franchise feels like its on the verge of a restart due to an aging roster with plenty of weaknesses.

With that said, numberFire's nERD-based power rankings have Minnesota as the league's 3rd-best team while the Rams rank 22nd. This goes beyond just the Vikings' defense.

Los Angeles is allowing 25.7 PPG (eighth-most) and 5.8 yards per play (sixth-most) while sitting among the bottom 10 teams in adjusted overall defense, run defense, and pass defense. Minnesota loves to the run ball (13th-highest run play rate) while mixing in some downfield passes (4th-most yards per passing attempt). That shouldn't be an issue against the Rams, who give up 4.7 yards per carry (eighth-most) and 7.9 yards per passing attempt (sixth-most).

In Week 7, the Vikings logged 6.6 yards per carry, and Aaron Jones flourished with 93 rushing yards and 2.48 rushing yards over expectation per carry, via NFL Next Gen Stats. Plus, Sam Darnold should get the time he needs in the pocket thanks to the offensive line's 11th-best PFF pass blocking grade while L.A. has the 10th-lowest sack rate.

Success in the run game while protecting the QB certainly spells success, and both goals look likely against the Rams' bottom-tier defense.

Thursday night's pick is pretty simple. Minnesota has been the far superior team thus far, and I won't overthink that due to one close loss against a divisional rival.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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