3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Texans at Jets

Week 9 will kick off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the New York Jets (2-6) and Houston Texans (6-2).

Houston's offense comes into this one bruised and battered. On top of Nico Collins already being on injured reserve, Stefon Diggs sustained a season-ending ACL injury in Week 8. However, morale is still pretty high for this group as they own -850 AFC South odds.

Morale has been nonexistent for the Jets. They've lost five straight and hit a new low this past Sunday, losing to the New England Patriots. Time is running out on the sour Aaron Rodgers era as the Jets currently have +590 odds to make the NFL playoffs. Even still, the home Jets are favored by 2.5 points tonight, and the game is showing a 42.5 over/under.

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Thursday night game.

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Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Joe Mixon 100+ Rushing Yards (+190)

The Texans are down key pass-catchers on a short week, so they should look to feed Joe Mixon the ball tonight. Feeding Mixon the ball has been one of the best yardage strategies in the league this season.

Mixon has totaled 503 rushing yards and 5 rush scores through five games, but he left Week 2's game early due to an ankle injury. Through four full games -- one of which Mixon was partially limited in post-injury -- he has logged at least 102 rushing yards in every outing. That's right: Mixon has yet to fall short of 100 rushing yards this year in games that he has finished. He's also averaging a massive 119.5 rushing yards in this split.

The Jets come into this one with just a 16th-ranked schedule-adjusted rush defense. They've also been ceding 4.5 yards per rush attempt at home. Plus, three of Mixon's four full games have come against teams that rank in the top eight against the run, so it's not as if he's continually encountered soft matchups.

Despite being 2.5-point favorites, the Jets have yet to show that they can jump out to a sizable lead, let alone maintain one. This puts Mixon's rushing volume in a good spot as the run-heavy Texans should play to their strengths and avoid a negative game script.

Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+102)

Backing Rodgers and the Jets is rarely my cup of tea, but I think there's a good reason to target Rodgers' passing touchdown prop at +102 odds.

Rodgers has thrown for two touchdowns in five out of eight games this season. The three times he missed this number came against the Denver Broncos (first-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense),San Francisco 49ers (5th), and Pittsburgh Steelers (16th). Those groups all surrender 1.0 passing touchdowns or fewer each game. They are three of just seven teams to be this limiting against TD passes.

The Texans, meanwhile, are surrendering 2.0 passing touchdowns per game (tied for third-most in the NFL) and 3.0 passing touchdowns per game (most) on the road. Opponents are scoring on them via the pass at a 76.2% rate (second-highest) and an 85.7% rate when Houston is on the road.

New York throws the ball on 63.6% of plays (fourth-most) and owns a 72.2% passing touchdown rate (third-most), which spikes to 80.0% at home.

This matchup sets up Rodgers to notch a pair of passing scores, especially with Davante Adams now in the fold.

Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown (+150)

Speaking of the devil, let's back Adams to catch one of those scores from Rodgers.

Adams and Rodgers have yet to connect for a touchdown in two games together, but Adams' usage numbers suggest a TD is coming. He comes in with a 23.4% target share and a team-leading 27.3% red zone target share. As mentioned, this matchup against Houston should pave a path for the Jets to score in the air, and no one is more due than Adams.

Notably, Allen Lazard (chest) has been ruled out for tonight's game. The synergy between he and Rodgers has allowed the pair to connect for five touchdowns this season. Lazard had been gobbling up a 26.3% red zone target share and his absence should grant Adams even more volume in the passing game.

Our NFL player projections expect Adams to score 0.54 touchdowns tonight. For context, that's the fifth-highest projection of the week among all wideouts. With +150 odds available, I know where I'm looking in tonight's touchdown market.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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