3 Best Player Prop Bets for Commanders at Eagles on Thursday Night Football
Week 11 is chock-full of exciting divisional matchups, and it all kicks off Thursday with an NFC East duel between the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) and Washington Commanders (7-3).
The Eagles have coasted their way to six straight victories and tout -240 odds to win the NFC East. The Commanders are fresh off their first loss in more than one month and are looking to shorten their +195 division odds. Philadelphia is favored by 3.5 points in a game that's showing a 48.5 over/under, so we're set up for quite the primetime barnburner.
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Thursday night game.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Commanders at Eagles Player Prop Picks
A.J. Brown 90+ Receiving Yards (+120)
A close spread (3.5) and high total (48.5) set us up for a shootout. Washington's 25th-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense could allow A.J. Brown to be the highlight of said shootout.
Brown has had an excellent season, even if that's the expectation. His efficiency is unrivaled, averaging 19.8 yards per catch and a stampeding 3.95 yards per route run. There's a reason the Birds are 6-0 when he's active, and I like him to go off in this matchup.
On the road, the Commanders are ceding 8.3 yards per pass attempt (second-most in NFL) and 235.4 receiving yards (eighth-most). Brown's date with Washington's secondary serves as the most exploitable WR/CB matchup in Week 11 (per PFF).
The game environment and matchup are great. So, too, is Brown's output thus far. He's earned a 32.0% target share, 48.6% air yards share, and nets 4.3 downfield targets per game. That's helped him notch at least 84 yards in all but one game as well as 100-plus yards in half of his outings. Brown has done all that despite being limited to an average of only 6.8 targets.
The Birds run the ball at the highest rate (55%) in the NFL. Considering the close spread, high total, and soft opposing pass D, tonight could be Philly's most pass-heavy game to date. In turn, I want to target Brown in the alt market.
Since this is a spot where Brown could go haywire, I'd consider laddering his yardage prop up to 125+ yards at +350. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are both banged up on a short week, so the passing game may be funneled through Brown.
Zach Ertz Longest Reception Under 15.5 Yards (-114)
I like the over for this game, so I'm not exactly scrounging to bet against players in the prop market. However, I'm cool to back a meh homecoming game for Zach Ertz in this market.
Ertz owns a 19.6% target share (second-highest on the team) but is averaging just 1.61 yards per route run and 10.3 yards per catch. He is seeing a muted 8.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT). His longest reception has been below 15.5 yards in 7 out of 10 games this campaign, and his ceiling has been a 24yard snag.
Zach Ertz - Longest Reception
This game is being billed as a shootout, and I like it to go in that direction. However, we can't forget that the Eagles come in with a third-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. Plus, the Birds have been particularly limiting against tight ends, allowing the position the fifth-fewest yards (36.89) and the seventh-fewest yards per catch (8.97) to TEs.
Terry McLaurin Anytime Touchdown (+160)
Whil we just touched on Philadelphia's rock-solid pass D, Terry McLaurin is a different player than Ertz, and I like the McLaurin's touchdown odds.
McLaurin has earned a 24.0% target share, 44.0% air yards share, 21.6% red zone share, and 45.0% end zone target share this season. Pair those team-dominating market shares with Washington's 22.5 implied team total, and McLaurin's +160 TD odds start to stand out.
He's seeing 3.8 downfield targets per game and is drawing a team-high 15.0 aDOT. On top of that, McLaurin is generating 2.83 yards per route run and is netting 15.1 yards per catch.
He's a talented wideout who sees awesome volume, and that's helped him log six receiving touchdowns (tied for fourth-most in the NFL) this season. The Eagles are surrendering just the 14th-fewest touchdowns per game to opposing WRs, and the Commanders may need to sling it as road 'dogs. Let's look for Terry to find the end zone tonight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.