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3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Saints

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

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3 Best Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Broncos at Saints

Week 7 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos (3-3) and New Orleans Saints (2-4). The Broncos are favored by 2.5 points for a game that features a 36.5 over/under.

Not that this was expected to be a head-turning showdown anyway, but an array of injuries for the Saints could make this an interesting and perhaps tough watch. Derek Carr (oblique), Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (knee), and Taysom Hill (rib) are on the Saints' injury report and are not expected to play tonight.

That means we'll get a primetime rookie signal-caller showdown between Spencer Rattler and Bo Nix. What could be better?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Thursday night game.

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Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Alvin Kamara Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-108)

The Saints have been running the ball at the league's ninth-highest rate (48.3%) this season, even with Carr, Olave, and Shaheed featured in the majority of that sample.

Rattler posted -0.45 expected points added (EPA) per drop back in his rookie debut, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and will now take on numberFire's second-best schedule-adjusted pass defense in the NFL. He'll have to do that without Olave and Shaheed, who have combined for 41.6% of the team's targets and 50.4% of the team's receiving yards this season.

We've got every reason to suspect a run-heavy night for this group, so let's look for Alvin Kamara to exceed 16.5 rush attempts.

Alvin Kamara - Rush Attempts

Alvin Kamara Over
Oct 18 12:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Kamara is averaging 17.3 rush attempts, and he's logged 19 carries in half of his games this season. New Orleans is asking their rookie QB to compete in a primetime contest against one of the league's top pass defenses, doing so without the team's two lethal targets. In turn, we should look for the Saints to play at a slow pace and take as much pressure off Rattler as they can, and that should result in feeding Kamara the ball.

The low total (36.5) and close spread (2.5) reaffirms that we should be in for a tight, low-scoring game, which mitigates the risk for either side being placed in a negative game script. Our NFL projections expect Kamara to log 18.02 rush attempts in this one, so I'll side with the over.

Foster Moreau Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Past Kamara, I love where we're finding this team's tight end props.

The Saints struggle with a 28th-ranked offensive line (per PFF), one that will go up against a top pass defense. That puts Kamara's rushing volume in a good spot, but it also creates a nice situation for the team's tight ends.

Rattler will need to pass at some point tonight, and his tight ends could be targeted for a decent portion of short gains in what's shaping up to be a piece-by-piece effort down the field. Let's start with Foster Moreau.

Foster Moreau - Receiving Yds

Foster Moreau Over
Oct 18 12:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

He led the team in yards (54) in Rattler's NFL debut a week ago, albeit via just two targets. But he's averaging 12.4 yards per reception and could easily clear 9.5 receiving yards on just one catch. A game sans Olave and Shaheed limits the team's opportunities to look downfield, and Taysom Hill will likely sit this one out, too. I'm expecting Moreau to be targeted as a bail-out option in this one, and you can get Moreau 2+ Receptions at +146 odds. Our projections have him down for 19 receiving yards versus Denver.

Foster Moreau - Alt Receptions
Foster Moreau 2+ Receptions

I want to mention Juwan Johnson here, too. He's their lead tight end and connected with Rattler for 48 yards on three targets in Week 6. Denver's defense surrenders the seventh-most targets and sixth-most receptions to opposing tight ends, namely due to how established they are in stopping the long ball. With that, I like Johnson to clear his receiving yards line, which is set at 27.5 with -110 odds on the over.

Juwan Johnson - Receiving Yds

Juwan Johnson Over
Oct 18 12:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

You can also get Johnson's touchdown prop at +440 odds. That would require the Saints to get downfield, something we aren't expecting to happen too much tonight, but the Broncos have turned the ball over nine times (tied for sixth-most in NFL) this season, so they could hand the Saints a short field. Johnson should take on an elevated role given all those injuries, so I see some value in his touchdown odds. It could be worth a sprinkle.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Juwan Johnson

Javonte Williams Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

It's no fun to seek rushing production in Denver, but that might be the apt way to turn tonight.

The Saints come in with an 11th-ranked adjusted pass defense but the 2nd-worst adjusted run defense in the NFL. They're letting up 5.2 yards per carry (third-most) and come in with a banged-up defensive line.

The Broncos aren't without their own injuries. Starting center Luke Wattenberg (ankle) has been placed on the injured reserve and Alex Forsyth will have to stand in tonight. Forsyth earned the lowest pass-blocking and run-blocking game (via PFF) when he filled in for Wattenberg in Week 6, so the whole offense will be affected by this injury. But Bo Nix has a bit of a turnover problem (5 interceptions this season) and the Saints have forced the second-most interceptions (10) this season. Denver could look to take whatever the New Orleans' defense is giving them, and historically, that'd be rushing efficiency.

Javonte Williams is averaging just 3.6 yards per rush attempt and was limited to 23 yards in Week 6. However, the Broncos faced a fifth-ranked rush defense in that one and were down 23-0 in the third quarter, so the run game couldn't exist.

Williams earned 61 yards via 13 carries in a Week 5 date against numberFire's ninth-worst rush defense. He also managed 77 yards on 16 carries in Denver's Week 4 10-9 victory over the New York Jets, so he could benefit from tonight's projected tight, low-scoring game.

Javonte Williams - Rushing Yds

Javonte Williams Over
Oct 18 12:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

FanDuel customers can also bet on Squares every Thursday Night. Know all the odds, for all the numbers. It's the same Super Bowl Squares game you've played before — only way better. Learn more at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.


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