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3 Best Player Prop Bets for Sunday Night Football: Lions at Texans

Austan Kas
Austan Kas@AustanKas

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3 Best Player Prop Bets for Sunday Night Football: Lions at Texans

Sunday's NFL action wraps up with a showdown between two of the NFL's best teams as the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions. The game has a 48.5-point total, and the Lions are 3.5-point road favorites.

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Sunday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Sunday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets

Joe Mixon Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-113)

When healthy, Joe Mixon has been a workhorse back for the Texans. That should hold true in this matchup, putting me on the over on Mixon's rushing attempts prop.

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Mixon has racked up at least 24 carries in three straight games. The Texans lost two of those games, so they've shown a willingness to feed Mixon even in a negative game script. He also had a 30-carry game in Week 1.

On top of that, the best way to attack the Lions is on the ground. Our schedule-adjusted metrics rank Detroit's run defense 24th, compared to their pass D sitting 2nd.

With both Tank Dell and Nico Collins listed as questionable, Houston might not have one -- or both -- of their top wideouts, so a ground-based attack makes even more sense.

Our NFL player projections have Mixon totaling 19.5 carries in this one.

Tim Patrick Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Tim Patrick got to play two games without Jameson Williams, which led to back-to-back outings with a 77% snap rate. But it didn't lead to more looks as Patrick recorded just 3 targets, 2 catches and 12 yards combined over the two weeks.

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With Williams back in the fold this week, Patrick will likely revert back to WR3 snaps, a role that kept him between a 39% and 53% snap rate in each of his previous five Lions games before Williams got suspended.

Patrick had a couple big games in said WR3 role, including three outings of 25-plus yards, but he seems to be fading to the background of late.

Facing a Houston pass defense that ranks seventh by our numbers, Patrick should be in line for another quiet game.

Ka'imi Fairbairn Over 7.5 Kicking Points (-114)

After back-to-back really nice seasons, Ka'imi Fairbairn is struggling this year, making only 84% of his kicks. This game sets up well for him to bounce back.

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In 2023, Fairbairn hit 96.4% of his field goals. The year prior, he made 93.5% of his tries. Fairbairn hitting just 21 of 25 field goals thus far is likely a blip more than anything, and Houston's offense may need to turn to him often tonight.

That's been the case lately as he's attempted at least three field goals in five straight games. Houston's offense struggling for form isn't a bad thing for this bet. It's unlikely C.J. Stroud and company really explode tonight against the NFL's sixth-ranked D and with Houston's wideouts banged up.

This game being indoors in Houston certainly doesn't hurt things, either. Over his career, Fairbairn has made 89.2% of his field goals at home, compared to 84.7% of his field goals on the road.

We project Fairbairn to make 2.01 field goals and 2.1 extra points.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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