3 Best Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Titans at Dolphins

The Tennessee Titans (0-3) and Miami Dolphins (1-2) will meet up this evening, so we are thankful tonight's iteration of Monday Night Football offers us a doubleheader.

The Titans are at risk of being one of just two teams to enter Week 5 without a win. The Dolphins will start Tyler Huntley after the Skylar Thompson experiment in Week 3 resulted in just 107 passing yards and three points.

Tennessee and Miami are currently two of the worst teams in the league, per our NFL Power Rankings or anyone who has watched either team compete this season. The Dolphins are a 2.5-point home favorite and the over/under checks in at 37.5 points. Where can we find betting value in the player props market?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Monday night game.

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Monday Night Football Best Player Prop Bets

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

De'Von Achane Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Raheem Mostert (chest) is not expected to play tonight, opening the door for De'Von Achane to eat up plenty of yardage.

Achane's first game sans Mostert this season (Week 2) was chaotically voluminous. He handled 22 carries for 96 yards in that one. His production was hindered in Week 3 -- for good reason. Thompson has never run an efficient offense, the opposing Seattle Seahawks own one of the best defenses in the league when healthy, and the Dolphins were in a negative game script from the get-go, digging themselves into a 17-3 deficit by the first quarter. Even still, Achane was allotted 11 carries last week.

With Mostert and Thompson out, Huntley in, and a date with the Titans inbound, Achane figures to make good on a voluminous workload.

Opponents are running the ball on Tennessee at a 49.4% rate (eighth-highest) and gaining 124.3 rush yards per game (14th-most). The Titans are ceding a 48.84% rushing first down percentage, the second-highest in the NFL. Jefferey Simons (elbow) is doubtful to play tonight. He checks in with the 13th-best run defense grade among interior defenders (per PFF), so his absence could allow the famously efficient Achane to run the ball in stride.

Considering the Dolphins are favored in a game that features a low over/under, we shouldn't expect Miami to be placed in a brutally negative game script. Huntley is better used in facilitating the run game than the passing game, so I imagine we'll see a lot from Achane in this one.

FanDuel Research's NFL projections expect Achane to log 77.7 rush yards via 17.1 attempts.

Tony Pollard Over 69.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

Tony Pollard can be an annoying player to bet on, but I'm surprised at where his yardage lines are set given his opportunities thus far, not to mention a game environment that could result in a battle of the running backs.

In Week 1, Pollard handled 16 carries and 4 targets for 94 yards. He saw even more work in the second week, earning 17 carries and 6 targets for 102 yards.

Week 3 was a dud for Tennessee's run game across the board. They dug themself into a negative game script early, handing the Green Bay Packers a 17-7 lead by the first quarter. The Pack were up by a minimum of 13 points for every second thereafter. In turn, the Titans tried to hammer a beatable Green Bay pass defense. Will Levis attempted 34 passes and the team totaled just 11 carries, six of which were made by Pollard.

I'm expecting Pollard's workload to look a bit closer to Weeks 1 and 2 tonight. The close spread and overall "who knows" nature of this game could prevent either side from being entrenched in a negative game script. The winless Titans need a dub and have a chance to get one against a ravaged Miami group. One way they can do that is by putting the reckless Levis on a shorter leash and working this one piece-by-piece through the run game.

Miami's run defense grades out well, but they are allowing 4.5 yards per rush attempt. Plus, Pollard's 94-yard game was against the Chicago Bears, so he's done well against stiff competition.

Our projections are well above market on Pollard. They expect him to log 15.1 carries and 3.1 targets for a total of 86.76 yards in this one.

De'Von Achane and Tony Pollard to Each have 25+ Rushing Yards in Each Half (+800)

Considering my general thesis on this game environment and how it could impact Pollard and Achane, I'm interested in this game specials prop that asks both of them to log 25 rush yards in each half.

As we know, Achane's rushing prop is set at 62.5 while Pollard's is set at 50.5 yards. For what it's worth, our projections expect them to each gain at least 70 yards on the ground tonight.

Rushing volume is highly dependent on game scenarios. It's hard to ask a player from each side to play a notable role in the run game if either side is forced into a negative game script. But with Huntley and Levis at the helm, it's pretty hard to picture either team taking on a big lead. The 2.5-point spread and low 37.5 over/under affirm that we should be in for a slow-paced, back-and-forth battle. So, unlike most games, both teams' lead rushers are set up for somewhat equitable volume in both halves of this game.

Achane is in a world of his own with Mostert out, so he's set up to be the easier hit here. But Pollard has out-carried his backfield counterpart Tyjae Spears by 27 carries through three games.

We're essentially asking this game to play out the same way the market is expecting it to, with both sides trusting their run game more than passing production, resulting in a slow, low-scoring game. A prop like this is typically quite a reach, but I see some reason to check out these +800 odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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