3 Best NHL Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 1/21/25

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens

Canadiens Moneyline (+130)

The Tampa Bay Lightning continue their four-game road trip with a showdown against the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday night. The Bolts were handily defeated last night, dropping a 5-3 decision at the hands of the Toronto Maple Leafs. They’ll have their hands full again as they try to get past a fiery Habs squad.

Tampa Bay’s recent results have been trending downward, dropping two of their past four. However, there’s a disconnect between their actual and expected metrics supporting ongoing correction. The Lightning are operating more than four points above their expected goals-for rating of 50.6%, resulting in an inflated PDO. More concerningly, they’ve been outplayed in three straight and six of seven, suggesting more losses are on the horizon.

Montreal is trending in the opposite direction. The Habs have outplayed their opponents in consecutive outings, attempting 24 high-danger opportunities. Further, they held both foes to nine or fewer quality chances, strengthening their metrics at both ends of the ice.

This is an ideal spot to back the Canadiens. They’ve tilted the ice in their favor and should maintain that standard against a Tampa Bay team skating on the second night of a back-to-back. Circumstances favor the Habs in this one.

Ottawa Senators vs. New York Rangers

Over 5.5 (-122)

Goals should be plentiful when the New York Rangers and Ottawa Senators take to the ice at Madison Square Garden. Both teams love flaunting their offensive prowess, which could turn this inter-divisional battle into a high-scoring affair.

Granted, Ottawa has been on a hell of an under run recently. The Sens have gone over the total only once over their last 13 games. However, they’ve fallen well below their expected goals for total. Across that sample, the Senators have tallied 15 goals at five-on-five, nearly eight goals below their expected total of 22.9. Immediate progress is anticipated in the short term.

While the Rangers had been operating below expected for an extended period, they’re amid a correction phase. New York has tallied ten goals over its last three, eclipsing four in two contests. Still, they remain below their expected goals for total on the season, implying further progression is anticipated.

This is a modest total, albeit with a slightly inflated price. Nevertheless, we see value in backing this Eastern Conference affair to go over the total.

Washington Capitals vs. Edmonton Oilers

Capitals Moneyline (+108)

The Edmonton Oilers will be without their captain for the next three games. Connor McDavid will serve his three-game suspension, starting with tonight’s tilt against the Washington Capitals. Combined with their anticipated regression, the Oilers are undeserving favorites at home.

Analytically, not many teams can compete with Edmonton, but the Capitals are among the few that can. Washington sits in the top ten in the league in expected goals-for rating and has been on an upward trajectory recently. Over their last three games, the Caps have put together a 56.7% eGF rating, winning all three of those contests.

The Oilers’ most recent effort could be a sign of things to come after an extended run in which they were overachieving. Edmonton put together a 32.8% expected goals-for rating on Saturday night, ending a torrid stretch. Over their previous nine games, the Oilers were operating at a 62.1% clip, significantly ahead of their season-long average of 54.7%.

Regression is imminent for the Pacific Division contenders, and we expect the Oilers to be caught flat-footed by a surging Capitals team. Consequently, we see value in the underdog Capitals on Tuesday night.

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