3 Best NHL Bets and Predictions for Thursday 4/3/25

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators

Senators Moneyline (+112)

The Ottawa Senators have dropped two in a row and can’t afford to lose any more ground in a crowded Eastern Conference playoff race. We expect them to be at their best when they host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night.

Thankfully, the Sens have a good track record of putting their best foot forward recently. Ottawa has outplayed its opponents in four of its last five, a stretch that includes only three wins. Their newfound analytics success is grounded in elite offensive play, but the Sens have done so without compromising their defensive structure. The wild card team is averaging 13.2 high-danger chances per game while giving up just 8.4 such opportunities.

As is typically the case, the Lightning have outplayed their metrics this season. However, they can’t continue on their current pace. The Bolts have a laughable 33.6% expected goals-for rating in getting outplayed in two straight. Despite being outplayed in both contests, Tampa Bay has a 9-4 goal margin and two wins in those games.

The Bolts have struggled lately, but their outcomes don’t reflect their play. That puts them at risk of regression in the short term and creates an edge in backing the Senators tonight.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. St. Louis Blues

Penguins Moneyline (+184)

The St. Louis Blues are the hottest club in the NHL right now. But they also aren’t as infallible as their recent record suggests. The Blues have been vastly overachieving relative to their underlying metrics, implying that a cooling-off period is on the horizon. At the current betting prices, there’s an edge in betting that regression happens tonight versus the Pittsburgh Penguins.

St. Louis hasn’t lost since March 13, the last time they played the Penguins. Since then, they’ve put together an actual goals-for rating of 66.7%, representing over a 13-point jump from their expected rating of 53.6%. That also correlates with an inflated PDO of 1.036, both of which point toward regression.

That eventual collapse could start against a Penguins team that is heating up. Pittsburgh has attempted 15 high-danger chances in each of its last two and has exceeded 13 quality opportunities in three of its previous five. Moreover, the Pens have been out-chanced just twice over that stretch while seeing a modest uptick in scoring.

Pittsburgh has embraced the role of spoiler. They can end the Blues’ unsustainable pace, setting off an anticipated downturn in the Blues' results.

Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames

Flames Moneyline (-164)

The Calgary Flames are coming off a monumental shootout win over the Colorado Avalanche, keeping their playoff hopes alive. They hope to keep that torch burning when they take on the Anaheim Ducks at the Saddledome.

Calgary’s recent efforts have been sensational. The Flames have put up an above-average expected goals-for rating (eGF) in five of their past eight, eclipsing the 60.0% threshold in four of those contests. Altogether, they have a 56.0% eGF rating across that sample, yielding a 5-2-1 record. Undoubtedly, another elite performance is expected on home ice.

Like the Flames, Anaheim has seen an improvement to its analytics profile over the past few weeks. However, ineffective defensive zone coverage has compromised the Ducks’ most recent efforts. Four of their last five opponents have eclipsed 10 high-danger chances, with all but one of those teams recording three goals at five-on-five.

We don’t think the Ducks will continue their offensive flight versus the defensively sound Flames. But they also lack the ability to neutralize a surging Flames attack. As a result, there’s value in backing Calgary in this spot.

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