3 Best NBA Playoffs Bets and Player Props for Thursday 5/1/25

The NBA postseason is here, and it offers us a wide variety of betting options, from point spreads and totals to player props.

There's a lot to choose from, but various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

NBA Betting Picks for Today's Playoff Games

New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Under 9.5 Points (-104)

Ausar Thompson made a huge impact on the Detroit Pistons' Game 5 win over the New York Knicks as he racked up 22 points and seven rebounds. This was a huge spike in scoring after logging only 7.5 points per game (PPG) in the previous four.

During the regular season, Thompson took 84.3% of his shots within 10 feet of the rim, and that's increased to 88.6% in the playoffs. New York gave up the 6th-highest shot distribution around the rim (per Dunks & Threes) and 10th-most points in the paint per game in the regular season, which seemed like a good matchup for Thompson.

However, the Knicks have limited Detroit to only 44.8 points in the paint per game. For reference, the Pistons put up 52.3 points in the paint per contest (fifth-most) in the regular season. Karl-Anthony Towns taking his defensive rating from 113.7 to 110.4 in the postseason has been a big help.

Considering Thompson has been under 10 points in three of five games this series, I'm comfortable taking under 9.5 points. The Pistons' paint scoring was still limited in Game 5 at 48 points.

Our NBA DFS projections have Thompson scoring only 7.8 points, suggesting a 74.1% implied probability for under 10 points (or -286 odds). That's about as good as it gets for value considering the current -104 line has a 51.0% implied probability.

Under 213.5 Points (-110)

As mentioned, the Knicks' interior defense has taken a step forward, and that goes directly against the Pistons' greatest strength on offense.

Keep in mind Detroit also posted the 8th-fewest three-point attempts and 10th-fewest made triples per game during the regular season. That production hasn't upped during this series as the Pistons made eight or fewer threes in three of the last four matchups.

On the other side of the court, New York wasn't a high volume three-point shooting team in the regular season either. It averaged the seventh-fewest made threes and third-fewest attempted three-pointers. The Knicks' 12.5 made triples per contest from the regular season has dipped to 11.2 in this series. Detroit's interior defense has been solid all season, surrendering the fifth-fewest points in the paint per game and the eighth-lowest shot distribution around the rim.

Considering each offense's inability to dominate from three paired with solid interior defenses, I'm comfortable backing the under after it hit in three of the last four games of this series.

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers

Kawhi Leonard Over 36.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-112)

Playoff Kawhi Leonard has been on full show for the Los Angeles Clippers-Denver Nuggets series as he's totaling 25.2 points, 5.2 assists, and 7.6 rebounds per game in the postseason. That's good for an average of 38.0 points, rebounds, and assists combined per game.

Tonight's combo is set at 36.5. The over is already tracking to be a good bet considering Leonard's averages across this series, but he's projected only 23.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, totaling 34.4. However, this could be selling Leonard's potential scoring total short.

For example, he's shooting 44.0% from three while averaging 2.2 made triples per game against the Nuggets. This is nothing new for Denver as it ceded the 11th-most made and attempted threes per game in the regular season. The Nuggets even surrendered the sixth-most points in the paint per game during the regular season, and this weakness has continued with L.A. recording 52.8 points in the paint per game through five games (51.3 in the regular season).

Of course, Leonard is a three-level scorer with the ability to drain threes, hit mid-range shots, or get to the rim. He essentially has the luxury to attack in any which way for this series, hence the 25.2 PPG thus far. With a slight uptick in scoring compared to our current projections, this would be enough to vault Kawhi to over his 36.5 combo.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.