3 Best NHL Bets and Predictions for Monday 1/20/25

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Maple Leafs Moneyline -134

Longstanding rivals take to the ice in The Six on Monday night as the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Tampa Bay Lightning. Curiously, the betting market has been short on the Leafs lately, but we like their chances at home against the Bolts.

Tampa Bay has been trending positively lately. They’ve won two in a row and gone 5-1-1 across their last seven. However, that success is contraindicated in Tampa Bay’s underlying metrics. The Lightning have outplayed their opponents only twice across the seven-game sample, precipitating a 47.9% expected goals-for rating.

Under Craig Berube, the Maple Leafs have adopted a different brand of analytics play. While this has resulted in a slight deterioration in their metrics year over year, the results continue to roll in. The Leafs remain first in the Atlantic Division, with positive relative metrics in shots-for and high-danger chance ratings.

It looks like the betting market is starting to hedge against the Leafs' underwhelming metrics. However, the new systems in place are working, and Berube has a great track record of operating at this end of the spectrum. This appears as a discounted rate, but it shouldn’t be. We see value in the Leafs.

Winnipeg Jets vs. Utah Hockey Club

Utah Moneyline +134

There’s nowhere to hide in the Central Division this year. Seven of the eight teams are competing for a playoff spot, including the surprising Utah Hockey Club. Utah gets to test its resolve against the best in class on Monday night, taking on the division-leading Winnipeg Jets.

Utah’s recent results don’t reflect its improved analytics play. The NHL’s newest team has dropped three of their past four and seven of ten, falling back to .500 on the season.

Still, the Hockey Club has been dictating play virtually every time they step on the ice. Utah has outplayed seven of its last eight opponents, yielding a 53.4% expected goals-for rating. Compared to their actual benchmark of 46.2%, we should see Utah take significant strides forward in the immediate future.

Conversely, we’re expecting some of the air to come out of the Jets’ wings in the near future. Winnipeg has been overheating, watching its eGF rating soar to 66.4%. While impressive, it also puts the Jets on an unsustainable path, as they are operating well above their usual standard of 51.0%.

Winnipeg plays its next two games against divisional opponents on the road. We forecast both contests to be flat spots as their metrics return to their normal range. On that basis, we see an edge in backing Utah tonight.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Los Angeles Kings

Kings Moneyline -188

Goaltending remains a limiting factor for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Pittsburgh has suffered through some of the worst metrics in the league, hampering their on-ice play and playoff aspirations. We expect that to happen again on Monday as they take on the Los Angeles Kings.

The Pens have consistently fallen short of their expected metrics, and that’s unlikely to change against the analytically superior Kings. LA sits fourth in the league with an expected goals-for rating of 54.7%, a benchmark they’ve stayed close to over their recent sample. The Kings have operated at 52.0% over their last five, outplaying three of those opponents.

Still, LA’s most pronounced advantage comes in the attacking zone. The Kings are averaging 9.4 high-danger chances per game over their previous four, out-chancing their opponents in all but one of those contests.

Over their last six games, the Penguins’ goalies have combined to give up 23 goals. More concerningly, they’ve only stopped 86.9% of shots faced. The Kings will be ready to strike, leaving an edge on the hosts.

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