3 Best NFL Rushing Player Props for the 2024 Season

A bevy of season-long props are available at FanDuel Sportsbook for the 2024 NFL season. Jumping on these lines could provide excellent value before we see shifts as the regular season draws closer.

Targeting total rushing yards for running backs is one market with some promising odds. Many backfields across the league are undergoing changes, from moving to a two-man rotation to handing the keys to a featured back.

Let's look at the top NFL odds for running backs, which includes two tailbacks with new homes. Utilizing FanDuel Research's season-long projections is one tool that's like gold for gauging these props. It's time to jump into the projections and various metrics that help point to the ideal line.

Aaron Jones Over 725.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Starting with one of the most notable movers in the offseason, Aaron Jones made the bold decision to join his former team's rival -- the Minnesota Vikings.

The run game in Minnesota severely lacked in 2024, totaling the ninth-fewest rushing yards per carry and the fourth-fewest rushing yards per contest last season. Alexander Mattison had his chance to be the lead back and disappointed with -0.25 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C).

Mattison departed in the offseason for the Las Vegas Raiders, leaving Ty Chandler as the holdover. Chandler wasn't a whole lot better with -0.12 RYOE/C.

There's an opportunity for Jones to become the clear lead back in Minnesota. While we saw Jones total only 656 rushing yards in 2023 (lowest since 2017), he played in only 11 games due to various injuries, including a hamstring pull and MCL sprain.

Jones still put up 59.6 rushing yards per game paired with 4.6 yards per carry. He also posted 0.48 RYOE/C -- far better than Minnesota's Mattison and Chandler.

We should also take some time to look at the offensive line situation with Jones changing scenes. According to ESPN, the Packers ranked 16th in run block win rate last season compared to the Vikings at 19th. PFF also ranked Minnesota's offensive line one spot ahead of Green Bay for the 2024 season.

Jones' blocking should be about the same as last season, and he's posted far better efficiency than Chandler. FanDuel Research's season-long fantasy projections have Jones forecasted for 256 touches to Chandler's 164. This assumes that each player is available in all 17 games, giving Jones 15.1 touches per game compared to Chandler's 9.6.

One could also argue that Minnesota will look to run the ball more often in 2024. Jones is simply a much better back than what the Vikings had last season, and their quarterback battle between Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy isn't the most aspiring competition.

Darnold is expected to start as of now; he's been miles behind 2023's starter Kirk Cousins. Darnold posted -0.06 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) compared to Cousins' 0.03. Simply put, Darnold is widely considered a "bust" while Cousins has been an above-average starter for years.

The one bit of hesitation for over Jones' rushing total is injuries. He likely has a big role awaiting, but missing six regular-season games like last season would be a major roadblock.

Still, over 725.5 rushing yards is a promising side. If Jones remains healthy, he has more than enough efficiency behind a solid offensive line to make this happen.

Kenneth Walker Under 875.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Following a positive spin on a running back, let's look at a player who could come up short of his rushing total.

Kenneth Walker III has been the clear top dog of the Seattle Seahawks' backfield since taking over for an injured Rashaad Penny in 2022. Despite starting in four more contests than his rookie season, Walker received nine fewer rushing attempts in 2023. His efficiency went from 4.6 rushing yards per attempt and 1.9 yards after contact per carry to 4.1 and 1.5.

According to PlayerProfiler, Walker has also finished 91st or worse in expected points added (EPA) in both of his seasons. Plus, his yards after contact per carry have been nothing to write home about. The bottom line? Walker has not been that efficient of a runner.

Enter Zach Charbonnet, the second-year tailback who was a second-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Charbonnet had 141 total touches in his rookie season compared to Walker's 256. Entering his second season, Charbonnet is a threat to take work from Walker due to his 2023 efficiency.

For example, the former second-round selection totaled 0.17 RYOE/C compared to Walker's -0.12 in 2023. Charbonnet totaled 4.3 yards per carry, which also surpassed Walker's mark by 0.2.

Charbonnet was already neck and neck with Walker in the receiving game last season, averaging 2.5 targets and 2.1 receptions per game versus Walker's 2.5 targets and 1.9 catches per contest.

With better efficiency in the rushing game across the board, there's a good chance Charbonnet eats into Walker's carries. Seattle already has few opportunities on the ground after totaling the second-fewest carries per contest last season. This philosophy will likely stand with Ryan Grubb coming in as offensive coordinator. Grubb led the Washington Huskies' offense in 2023, which attempted the 12th-most passes per game in college football.

With Charbonnet's usage potentially increasing in an offense that has few rushing opportunites, give me Walker to go under 875.5 rushing yards.

Ezekiel Elliott Over 575.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

PFF ranked the Dallas Cowboys as the worst running back room in the league ahead of the upcoming season. There's not a whole lot to like about this group as a fading Ezekiel Elliott and unproven Rico Dowdle lead the corps.

However, over 575.5 rushing yards for Zeke still seems worth targeting. This is an extremely low mark that he still managed to surpass as a backup with the New England Patriots in 2023 (642 rushing yards).

While Dallas is expected to lean on their passing game once again -- ranked as the sixth-best unit by numberFire's power rankings -- this team will still run the rock. In fact, the Cowboys still finished among the top half in rushing attempts and rushing yards per game last season.

Elliott is far from his peak as he finished with a career-low 3.5 rushing yards per carry last season. Additionally, he posted a concerning -0.38 RYOE/C (worst on the New England).

But strictly from a workload standpoint, Zeke still has a great chance to surpass 575.5 rushing yards. He should have much better blocking this season as the Cowboys had the 4th-highest run block win rate while the Pats ranked 10th in the category last season. PFF also ranked Dallas as the 10th-best offensive line ahead of 2024 while the Patriots sit in 28th-place.

FanDuel Research's season-long fantasy projections have Elliott finishing with 195 carries and 769 rushing yards (3.9 yards per carry). Keep in mind this is assuming that Zeke plays in all 17 games, but his per-game averages of 11.5 carries and 45.2 rushing yards would still be better than 2023's 10.8 rushing attempts per game and 37.8 rushing yards per contest.

Plus, this is expecting Elliott to increase last season's 3.5 yards per rushing attempt to 3.9, which makes sense due to improved blocking.

Zeke playing in all 17 games isn't too far fetched, either. He's averaged 16 games per season over the last four years, making his projections even more eye-catching.

The biggest concern for the over would be a surprise emergence from Rico Dowdle. He's currently expected to finish with 57 fewer carries and over 200 fewer rushing yards than Zeke, according to projections.

However, Dowdle has drawn early praise, looking like the best running back at the Cowboys' training camp. It's early, so take this with a grain of salt.

Unless things drastically change during camp, Elliott should have more than enough touches this season to surpass his rushing total. Even with poor efficiency of under 4.0 yards per carry, Zeke could easily vault past 575.5 yards. Running behind better blocking while providing good durability over the last few seasons only adds to his case.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.