3 Best NFL Receiving Player Props for the 2024 Season

The NFL season is on the horizon, and the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have you covered if you're looking to get in on season-long props.

Our staff has laid out some of the top options for NFL rushing player props, NFL passing player props, and the best NFL MVP bets.

For this article, we'll turn our attention to NFL receiving props.

Utilizing our NFL projections, which are powered by numberFire, let's check out where value can be had in the receiving markets.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Best NFL Receiving Props

Puka Nacua Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+108)

Puka Nacua had a dazzling freshman season with the Los Angeles Rams. He set an NFL rookie record for receiving yards and catches, reeling in a massive 1,486 yards (fourth-most in the NFL) on 105 receptions.

Despite the record-breaking play and Nacua's status as the main target on the league's eighth-highest scoring offense, he found the end zone just six times.

Catching 6 touchdowns via 160 targets is good for a measly 3.75% touchdown rate. That's an awfully low scoring percentage. For reference, 21 eligible wide receivers held a 7.0% touchdown rate or higher, and 43 wideouts owned a 5.0% touchdown rate or higher in the 2023-2024 NFL season.

Our Brandon Gdula covered which wide receivers should score more in 2024, and as you could probably guess, Nacua is one of the top names on that list after posting -2.4 touchdowns under expectation last year. Per Gdula, there have been 116 occurrences in which a player totaled at least 1,400 receiving yards. In this span, a player notched fewer than 7 touchdowns just 14 times (12.1%).

With Matthew Stafford and LA's offense returning with the majority of the same pieces from last season, we should expect Nacua to take on a similar workload but with more scores this time around. He held a 28.7% target share and 20.5% red zone target share in his rookie bid, which seems pretty sustainable considering he was efficient with 14.2 YPR. Cooper Kupp's touchdown rate in the last three years ranges from 5.3% to 8.4%. He could be due for negative regression, and the injury-prone wideout already comes in with question marks.

FanDuel Research's projections forecast Nacua to record 8.25 receiving touchdowns via 166 targets based on a full 17-game season.

There are two fun takeaways here. For starters, Nacua would have to play just 14.4 games to reach 7.0 touchdowns based on our projections' touchdowns-per-game average. Further, these projections expect Nacua to end the season with a 4.9% touchdown rate. While that's above last season's ultra-low 3.75% rate, a 4.9% rate is still pretty moderate, and a heftier dose of regression would have Nacua scoring at an even higher rate this season.

Mike Evans Under 8.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-148) / Chris Godwin Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (+102)

In 2023, Mike Evans achieved 1,255 receiving yards on 79 receptions and 136 targets while Chris Godwin logged 1,024 receiving yards on 83 receptions and 130 targets for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Evans and Godwin ended up combining for 15 touchdowns.

Using the aforementioned information alone, how would you guess these scores were divvied up? Evans gained a little over 200 yards more than Godwin, so perhaps the former had the latter beat by a few scores? But then again, Godwin did notch more catches than Evans, so perhaps the gap was even closer than that?

Even if you already know how this tale ended, it's still pretty shocking to look back on. Evans scored a league-leading 13 receiving touchdowns (tied with Tyreek Hill) while Godwin was limited to just 2 scores. Evans posted a massive 9.6% touchdown rate (second-highest in NFL; minimum 50 targets) while Godwin's 1.53% touchdown rate was the third-lowest in the league and the lowest among wideouts who saw more than 75 targets.

For better and worse, regression should slap Tampa Bay's wideouts in the face this season.

Let's start with Evans. He posted a league-high 5.5 touchdowns above expectation last season. He's been a volatile scorer throughout his career, owning as high as a 12.2% TD% (2021) and as low as a 2.0% TD% (2015) despite seeing upwards of 110 targets in both of those seasons.

In totality, Evans' professional career has been marked with a 7.0% TD%. He's due for negative scoring regression and should see that this year. Our projections expect Evans to nab 8.46 touchdowns via 133 targets based on a full 17-game season.

So, even with Evans being afforded a fully healthy season in these projections, he's still expected to fall below his touchdown prop on a forecasted 6.3% TD%.

You may want to consider fading Evans in the receiving yards market, too. Our projections expect him to log 1,094 yards in a 17-game season.

Based on his projected yards-per-game average, Evans would need to play 16 games to exceed 1,025.5 receiving yards. He's a durable wideout but the market's expectations for him appear to be too high. This market could be a great opportunity to fade Evans at more appealing -112 odds.

With Evans primed to take a backseat in the scoring column, let's look for Godwin's luck to change for the better.

Baker Mayfield gifted Godwin with a 23.8% red zone target share last year and the two still connected for just a pair of touchdowns. Godwin's 1.53% TD% on 130 targets is baffling, especially since he was coming off the heels of a 2.1% TD% via 142 targets season in the year prior. He's pounding at the regression monster's door after posting a towering -10.3 touchdowns under expectation across the last three seasons.

From 2018-2020, Godwin had posted a TD% higher than 7.0% for three straight years. We know he's capable of reaching the end zone, and Tampa Bay's Mayfield-led offense should see Godwin taking on a similar role as last time out, but this time with a few more scores in his bag. Our projections forecast 5.88 touchdowns on 130 targets for Godwin over 17 games.

Based on our model's per-game pace, Godwin would need to play just 14.4 games to exceed 4.5 touchdowns, and this is even with the projections expecting just a 4.5% TD%.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.