3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 12
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.
Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Prop Picks for Week 12
Mike Evans 60+ Receiving Yards (+110)
Mike Evans will return this weekend after missing four games with a hamstring injury. Evans said he could have pushed a Week 10 return, so he should be in good shape coming out of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' bye week. He's been a full participant in practice.
The Bucs will take on the New York Giants. Evans will draw a matchup against Deonte Banks, who has allowed the second-most fantasy points per route run to opposing WRs this season.
Evans' market shares through seven games include a 19.3% target share and 37.2% air yards share. Chris Godwin sustained a season-ending ankle injury since Evans last played, so the Evans should look to take on an even bigger role with the Godwin out of the fold.
Considering Evans' friendly matchup and target shares -- and the fact that he is a super talented receiver -- I think he's undervalued in the yardage market this week, so I'd consider laddering his props. You can get Evans 90+ Receiving Yards at +320.
To add, Evans has some extra motivation to get going this weekend. Famously, Evans has logged 1,000-plus receiving yards in 10 straight seasons, otherwise known as his entire NFL career. Missing four games has put that streak in jeopardy, and Evans needs to average 95.0 yards the rest of the way in order to get there. Baker Mayfield has said that the streak "is important to us."
Now, the Bucs aren't going to play with their food as they make a playoff push, but Baker's statement reinforces just how much Tampa Bay would love to see Evans get going in Week 12.
D.K. Metcalf Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Nearly one month away from the field didn't stop D.K. Metcalf from catching seven of his nine targets for 70 yards in Week 11. Let's look for him to find that yardage range again this weekend.
On the season, Metcalf has enjoyed a 23.3% target share and 41.3% air yards share. He's also seeing 5.0 downfield targets per game and is netting 2.06 yards per route run. Last week, he ran 89.5% of routes for the Seattle Seahawks and received a 29.0% target share and 43.3% air yards share.
D.K. Metcalf - Receiving Yds
The 'Hawks will take on the Arizona Cardinals for a super important NFC West matchup, one that's showing a close spread (1.5) and a high over/under (47.5). That's great news for the passing game and sets us up for a potential shootout.
Arizona ranks 21st in schedule-adjusted pass defense. They're allowing the 12th-most targets and 13th-most yards to opposing WRs. Further, Metcalf's matchup against Arizona's Sean Murphy-Bunting is considered one of the most exploitable WR/CB matchups in Week 12, per PFF.
Metcalf has logged 70-plus receiving yards in five out of eight games this season. Notably, he has played just three contests against teams that currently rank outside the top 13 in schedule-adjusted pass D. In this split, Metcalf went for 99, 104, and 129 yards. I like him to go off this week.
Hunter Henry Anytime Touchdown (+300)
Drake Maye has thrown nine touchdown passes through five full starts this season. He might have a few more in him this weekend, so let's look for Maye's top target to reach the end zone at +300 odds.
Hunter Henry has earned a 20.1% target share and 28.3% red zone target share this season. In five full games alongside Maye, he's garnered a 21.7% target share and a whopping 41.2% red zone target share. Nonetheless, he and Maye have connected for just one touchdown.
Henry is due for some major scoring regression. He's scored just one TD on 66 targets, good for a mere 1.5% touchdown rate. He and Alvin Kamara are the only players in the league who have scored just one receiving touchdown while also logging 66-plus targets.
The Pats will take on the Miami Dolphins this weekend. Miami ranks eighth in schedule-adjusted rush defense but just 17th in schedule-adjusted pass defense. They're also allowing the most targets per game to opposing tight ends.
I think Henry is slightly undervalued in the touchdown market, so I'll back him to see some regression in a plus matchup.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.