3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Packers at Lions

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out as the Green Bay Packers take on the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday Night Football Best Player Prop Picks

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Thursday Night Football has exceeded expectations in 2024, and Week 14's TNF battle might just take the cake. The Packers (9-3) will visit the Lions (11-1) for an NFC North match that could have major implications on how the division shakes out. Detroit currently touts -460 NFC North odds while Green Bay has +1400 chances.

In terms of props, the first player I want to look to is none other than Jahmyr Gibbs.

Gibbs is the most powerful force on one of the best offenses in the league. His role in the passing game is notable, as he's logged 20-plus receiving yards in 7 out of 12 games this season. He could see special volume against a Green Bay D that allows the ninth-most targets, eighth-most receptions, sixth-most receiving yards, and fourth-most yards per catch to opposing RBs.

Our NFL projections think Gibbs will tally 27 receiving tonight. Since this is shaping up to be a rare competitive game for the Lions (3.5-point favorites), let's tack on Gibbs' rushing + receiving prop, which is set at 90.5 yards. Jahmyr is averaging 104.5 total yards per game and has eclipsed 90.5 scrimmage yards in 9 out of 12 contests, including his last four straight.

In six games decided by one score, Gibbs net 109.2 yards and went for at least 103 in all but one of those contests. His pure talent has made him a bit matchup-proof, so I'll always be on board to back Gibbs when there's indication that he could be undervalued in the yardage market.

Sam LaPorta Anytime Touchdown (+240)

Sam LaPorta posted a sicko stat line on Thanksgiving Day: 3 receptions, 6 targets, 6 yards, and 2 touchdowns. If you had the over on his yardage prop, all you can do is laugh.

Despite owning an unsustainable 11.4% touchdown rate (5 TDs on 44 targets), I'm good to go back to well on LaPorta since his scoring odds are all the way up at +240 in game that carries a close spread (3.5) and a massive total (51.5).

We don't need to vouch for LaPorta's usage. He comes in with a 14.8% target share, 22.6% red zone target share, and a 35.7% end zone market share. Since Detroit's bye in Week 5, he's handled a team-leading 31.4% red zone target share and 45.5% end zone target share. He's also been running 84.0% of routes in two games since returning from a shoulder injury.

The Packers are coughing up the 4th-most receptions (tied) and 12th-most touchdowns to tight ends. Detroit has a 27.5 implied team total in this one. We know they have innumerable scoring threats, but Jared Goff can allow everyone to eat, and it just feels off that LaPorta has the 10th-longest odds in the TD market despite his unrivaled usage in the red zone. Our projections forecast LaPorta to log 0.35 touchdowns, the third-highest receiving projection behind Jayden Reed (0.36) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (0.55).

Tucker Kraft Under 34.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

I like Tucker Kraft and, as a general note, rarely find myself backing unders for tight ends. Kraft is also off the heels of a huge 78-yard game, and the Packers will likely be entrenched in a pass-heavy script on Thursday night.

The problem? The Lions are a brutal matchup, and Kraft has shown a tendency to get iced out in these types of games.

Detroit comes in with a first-ranked scheduled-adjusted pass defense. In seven games against top-15 pass defenses, Kraft has a 13.1% target share and is netting just 1.08 yards per route run. In five games outside of this split, he's seeing an improved 16.9% target share and 2.90 yards per route run.

Kraft logged under 34.5 receiving yards in five out of seven games versus those aforementioned top-15 pass defenses. The Lions aren't just any decently-rated pass D -- they are the best of all. To add, Detroit is particularly limiting against tight ends, allowing this position the third-fewest targets, fewest receptions, and fewest yards per game. Kraft has zero competition in Green Bay's tight end room and is a solid player, but I think too much is working against him in this matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.