3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Thanksgiving

Across the Thanksgiving slate, I'm seeing value in only a couple spreads and no totals across the three games. It's something, but with these banger matchups, I was left wanting a little more.

Luckily, the prop market has us covered. Those streets are more fruitful.

Let's dig into the three-game Thanksgiving slate and lay out my favorite props in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Thanksgiving

Jordan Love Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The Green Bay Packers have been content to sit on their thumbs for large stretches this year, playing low-scoring games against largely poor opponents.

They won't be able to do that against the Detroit Lions, putting me on Jordan Love's passing yardage over.

Despite a high-efficiency passing offense, the Packers have thrown the ball on just 47.9% of their early-down plays this year, well below the league average of 53.1%. It has led to Love's going under in 6 of 11 games this year, including three straight.

The Lions, though, are a tough matchup on the ground. They rank 10th in schedule-adjusted success rate allowed to opposing running backs, and they're 7th in EPA per carry.

When you combine that with a neutral script, we can juice Love's volume. It's also a good stylistic matchup as the Lions let up -- by far -- the highest average depth of throw in the league. We could get some Love long balls here to jack up his yardage in a hurry.

It's possible the Packers pound Josh Jacobs into the back of the offensive line again, something they've done a frustrating amount this year. But there are enough factors pointing toward an improved environment, putting me on this Love over.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 108.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-114)

With the Lions not having a sterling record, they've had to up the usage on Jahmyr Gibbs recently. I don't think the prop market has reacted enough to that movement.

The Lions already have four losses this year, putting them a full game out of first place. The Packers are one of two teams ahead of them, making this game as massive as can be in November.

Gibbs' usage has shot up as a result of the stakes. He has had a 70% snap rate each of the past two games, something he hadn't done in a game where David Montgomery was fully healthy previously.

As you've likely noticed, he's doing a lot with those snaps. He has average 165.6 yards from scrimmage the past 5 games despite having just 28 in one of them. His other totals are 218, 172, 146, and 264.

Sicko.

Yes, the Packers' defense is good at preventing explosives, but they did let Tyrone Tracy Jr. find some space through the air two weeks ago. Getting exposure to a big play for Gibbs both as a rusher and a receiver makes this number attractive.

Chase Brown Over 78.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-114)

Chase Brown's role will get dinged this week with Samaje Perine back off effectively a three-game absence. The hope is that Joe Burrow's return will help negate that, making Brown a value.

Brown's resurgent season started before Perine's injury. In Perine's final two full games, Brown had 100 and 105 yards from scrimmage while playing less than two-thirds of the snaps. With Perine sidelined, Brown was hyper-productive, averaging 123 yards from scrimmage per game.

The Bengals' season is on the line now, and Brown has proven to be the force he looked like down the stretch last year. I have a hard time envisioning him losing important snaps to Perine now.

Even with the Baltimore Ravens' defense rounding back into form recently, they have still let up explosives to running backs. They let up four explosive rushes (10-plus yards) in both Weeks 10 and 11, tying their highest marks of the season. Brown can still find at least some space here, and with his prop line being modest, that's all we need.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.