3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Sunday Night Football: 49ers at Bills
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Sitting in last place of the NFC West, it's safe to say the San Francisco 49ers season hasn't gone as planned.
Experiencing a true "Super Bowl hangover", S.F. has a losing record after Thanksgiving, and the road only gets tougher this weekend. They're on the road to battle what feels like the most stable and well-rounded Buffalo Bills team of Josh Allen's career.
Buffalo exits a bye after an electric win to end the Kansas City Chiefs' perfect season. Will they get another on Sunday, or can the Niners save their season?
Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.
You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.
So, which bets stand out as the 49ers take on the Bills on Sunday Night Football? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Sunday Night Football Best Player Prop Picks
James Cook Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
James Cook Anytime Touchdown (-115)
A quick answer of how the 49ers' defense has fallen apart can be traced back directly to the run game.
S.F. is numberFire's 23rd-ranked rush defense when adjusting for schedule, allowing over 100 rushing yards in five of their last seven games. This might be a bit hidden by recent matchups with the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys -- two teams who barely run the ball.
Buffalo isn't exactly much different. They're ninth in pass rate over expectation, but Sunday's conditions might afford them no choice. Though the feet (plural) of snow should be gone, we'll see significant snowfall and 20 mph winds in Western New York on Sunday night.
That's good news for James Cook's counting production. At 0.98 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/c), Cook is one of the most efficient backs in the NFL, but he's battled just a 51.1% snap rate in the last five weeks between blowouts and losing work on third downs to Ty Johnson.
In an elite matchup and elite conditions for a running back, FanDuel Research's Week 13 NFL projections expect 14.8 carries and 67.1 rushing yards for Cook in this one.
I'm adding a touchdown when Cook's 48.6% red zone rush share in the last five weeks is actually the bright spot of his workload. He's scored seven times in his last six contests despite not facing a bottom-10 rush defense since Week 3.
Deebo Samuel Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
This isn't the right environment for receiving props -- except one special exception.
Deebo Samuel is no traditional receiver. With a tiny, team-low 7.8 average depth of target (aDOT), Samuel is much more a gadget guy with designed short targets. The elements might not provide an opening for much else.
Samuel's line is also suppressed because he's just been so unproductive of late. Seeing only 4.8 targets per game over the last five contests, Samuel has averaged 35.2 yards per game in that span. He was blanked entirely against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Jauan Jennings (10.2 aDOT) has truly enjoyed a breakout at 2.78 yards per route run, but this environment will make it difficult to get him the ball downfield -- especially with Brock Purdy nursing a shoulder injury.
We've got Samuel projected for 56.4 receiving yards in this unique spot to bring out his skill set.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.