3 Best NFL Passing Player Props for the 2024 Season

The NFL season is drawing near, and the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook have you covered if you're looking to get in on futures and season-long betting.

Over on FanDuel, you can find markets for NFL win totals, NFL MVP odds, and much more.

For this article, we'll turn our attention to NFL passing props. Utilizing our NFL projections, which are powered by numberFire, let's check out where value can be had in the passing markets.

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Best NFL Passing Props

Aaron Rodgers Under 3,600.5 Passing Yards (-112)

There are a few question marks regarding how Aaron Rodgers will fare with the New York Jets this season. Those uncertainties are strong enough to make me fade Rodgers in this market.

We don't have to look back too far to find MVP-esque numbers from Rodgers. He won the MVP award in both the 2020 and 2021 NFL seasons, throwing for a total of 8,414 yards in that span.

His last year with the Green Bay Packers resulted in 3,695 passing yards through a full 17-game season, which was a career-low among seasons where Rodgers played at least 15 games. The soon-to-be 41-year-old is approaching the nadir of his career, and we've yet to even mention the biggest elephant in the room.

As we all know, Rogers tore his Achilles last year just four snaps into his debut with the Jets. He missed the remainder of the season. New York's head coach Robert Saleh stated that Rodgers is "unlikely to play this preseason."

We're looking at a 40-year-old on the mend from a serious injury who hasn't played a meaningful game in nearly 600 days. Personally, I'm sweating the over on his passing prop just thinking about it.

All is not lost, however. The Jets have the fifth-best offensive line in the NFL (per PFF), and Rodgers is armed with Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. In this regard, he is set up for success.

But even a healthy version of Rodgers is expected for mediocracy in the air. Our projections forecast Rodgers to garner 3,869 passing yards (22nd-most) this season, and these projections assume that he will suit up for a full 17-game season.

This means that Rodgers would have to play 15.8 games to exceed 3,600.5 passing yards at the per-game rate our projections expect. Essentially, we're asking Rodgers to be fully healthy in all but one game. That's not a bet I'm willing to back.

Gang Green will take on a pair of division rivals in the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins in the final two weeks of the regular season. The AFC East figures to be a battle between these three teams, which could mitigate the risk of a Rodgers sit-out in a potentially meaningless Week 18 game.

Even still, Rodgers' age and injury status draw enough concern from an effectivity standpoint. Once we add in the tall task of asking him to suit up for upwards of 15 games, Rodgers' passing prop line appears to be closer to the ceiling than the benchmark.

Josh Allen To Throw 4,000+ Passing Yards (+140)

Josh Allen has thrown for a minimum of 4,283 yards across the last four seasons and is averaging 4,385 passing yards per campaign in that span.

He's participated in 82 out of 83 possible regular-season games since the start of his sophomore season. The reliable and durable signal-caller has sailed past 4,000 passing yards for seasons on end, yet he's handed just a 41.7% probability (via +140 odds) to repeat that success this season.

I guess that's what happens when you lose Stefon Diggs.

Diggs was along for the ride in the last four seasons, ranking in the top 10 of receiving yards in three of those years and leading the NFL receiving yards in one of them. His target share ranged from 26% to 30% in Allen's offense. The Bills also lost Gabriel Davis, Allen's second in command.

I think the changes to Buffalo's receiving corps sound worse than they really are, and the market might be underselling what Allen can do sans Diggs. After all, we're talking about someone who ranked sixth in expected points added per drop back last season and is still supported by one of the league's top offensive lines.

Buffalo added Curtis Samuel in free agency and used the No. 33 overall pick in the draft to select Keon Coleman. The team will look to build out Khalil Shakir and return with a pair of intriguing tight ends in Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid.

It's not the best receiving unit around, but either of Shakir or Coleman could be in for a breakout season while Samuel is a solid wideout. Allen doesn't need a singular replacement for Diggs in order to sustain his output to some degree, though the market is expecting a mighty fall.

Our projections have Allen throwing for 4,457 yards in a full season. Based on his projected yards-per-game average, he would need to play 15.2 games to exceed 4,000 passing yards. His durability makes him an ideal option for season-long props.

Matthew Stafford Over 23.5 Passing Touchdowns (-118)

Matthew Stafford totaled 24 touchdown passes through just 15 games last season. Let's look for him to run it back with the Los Angeles Rams this year.

The Rams are a fun offense, and Stafford is armored with threats such as Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams, and Tyler Higbee.

Injuries and underperformance have been all too familiar for Kupp in the last two seasons, but the then-rookie Nacua filled the void a year ago, notching the fourth-most receiving yards in the NFL. If Kupp can get back on track, the possibilities are endless for this offense. FanDuel Research's Jim Sannes has the Rams projected out as the 10th-highest scoring offense for the upcoming season.

Stafford has played in at least 16 games in 10 of his last 13 seasons. The durability hasn't been perfect during his tenure with the Rams, but he's still fairly injury-avoidant.

According to our Brandon Gdula, Stafford posted -2.6 touchdowns under expectation last season. Now, that's not a massive case of underperformance, but it is notable considering he had posted -2.7 touchdowns under expectation in the season prior. He was due for regression last time out and didn't see any. Regression could strike with a force this season.

Our projections love Stafford's potential. They have him set to throw 28.9 touchdown passes in a full 17-game season. Based on his projected per-game pace, Stafford would need to play just 14.1 games to exceed 23.5 touchdowns.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.