At first glance, this isn't the most glorious slate of Thanksgiving NFL games.

We've got one that's quarterbacked by a pair of backups and another with a double-digit spread. With just three games on the menu, that leaves something to be desired.

And yet I do think there's at least one fun bet in each. They're all values in my model's Week 13 spread and total predictions, and I agree with where the model is pointing.

Let's dig into those and see which bets I like most in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Thanksgiving NFL Betting Picks

Bears at Lions

Total Over 48.5 (-110)

I've got the Detroit Lions as pretty heavy favorites over the Chicago Bears, enough to where I could consider laying the 10.5. But Caleb Williams has looked good enough the past two weeks where I think the over is the better bet.

In two games with Thomas Brown calling plays, Williams has averaged 0.17 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. That's way up from -0.07 before the switch, and it has come against two solid defenses.

The Lions are a tough matchup, too, but they've now lost two key pieces in Aidan Hutchinson and Alex Anzalone. Given how good their offense is, we don't need the Bears to do a ton for this game to flirt with the over.

I've currently got this total at 51.3, even assuming left tackle Taylor Decker sits for the Lions, which is a big enough gap for me to take the plunge.

Giants at Cowboys

Giants' Moneyline (+162)

I was tolerant of the New York Giants' moneyline at +176 when it looked like Tommy DeVito was going to start.

Now that DeVito is not guaranteed to play due to a forearm injury, I'm more receptive to it.

Even if I keep DeVito as the starter, I'd have the Giants' win odds at 38.3%, right in line with the implied odds of 38.2%. If I swap the starter to be Drew Lock, that would go up to 41.3% as Lock has at least been a more competent fill-in than DeVito in the past.

This moreso revolves around the defense, though. Despite a poor showing last week, the Giants are still 19th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings while the Dallas Cowboys are 30th. As long as the Giants' players haven't quit -- which, to be honest, it kinda looked like they did last week -- I think these two teams are relatively equal.

The Cowboys deserve to be favored no matter who starts. But I don't hate the principle of betting on the better defense to win at +162 when it's a game with such a low total.

Dolphins at Packers

Total Under 47.5 (-115)

Both of these offenses are fun, and they're coming off of blow-up outings. I've got high projected efficiency marks for both the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins.

External factors push me toward the under.

One of those is weather. The current forecast calls for 11 mph winds and temperatures in the 20s. I don't care much about the cold, but the wind matters for me. It lowers the total a full point from where it'd be if the wind were just 5 mph.

Another issue is pace. The Packers and Dolphins rank 20th and 21st respectively, in adjusted pace, according to FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula. This saps play volume and decreases the odds of a shootout.

Finally, both defenses are playing good ball, sitting just inside the top 10 of numberFire's rankings. The Packers' marks are a bit flimsier as they've thrived off of turnovers, but I still respect both units.

When you add all of that together, despite thinking both offenses are good, I've got this total at 44.5. We get a win on a key number of 47, so I'm comfortable riding with the under here.

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Which bets stand out to you for Thanksgiving? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.