3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Dolphins at Bills on Thursday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Thursday night matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Dolphins at Bills Betting Picks on Thursday Night Football

Over 49.5 (-118)

It's still early in this 2025 campaign, but it's abundantly clear the 2-0 Bills and 0-2 Dolphins are headed in opposite directions. Buffalo continues to look like a Super Bowl contender, coming in at 3rd in our latest power rankings, whereas Miami resides in 25th place.

The hot seat for Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is starting to show flames at this point, and unfortunately for him, this is hardly the opponent you want to see on a short week and on the road.

That being said, the Bills are favored by 11.5 points, which is a high enough number to feel a tad uncomfortable backing despite the one-sided outlook -- particularly with less time in between games. Dating back to 2019, home teams have won on Thursday Night Football 55.3% of the time but own just a 45.7% cover rate. Additionally, Week 3 betting trends suggest we should be wary of backing a heavy home favorite.

More specific to this matchup, Buffalo's lack of an elite defense should be enough to worry us that Miami's offense will still be able to put up some points. By our metrics, the Bills rank 1st in schedule-adjusted offense so far, but they're just 18th in adjusted defense. The Dolphins' offense showed signs of life in a 33-27 loss to the New England Patriots last week, and any team with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane is capable of chunk plays.

With that in mind, over 49.5 total points looks like the more appealing play, as we should feel pretty confident in Buffalo holding up their end of the bargain. Miami is 30th in schedule-adjusted defense after getting torn up by Daniel Jones and Drake Maye, and with no disrespect to those two, let's just say facing Josh Allen will be like going from normal difficulty to cranking it up to the highest setting.

James Cook Over 86.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

James Cook's usage has fluctuated according to game script across the first two weeks, but in both cases, he's soared over 86.5 scrimmage yards.

With the Bills in comeback mode in Week 1's shootout versus the Baltimore Ravens, Cook logged 13 carries and 5 targets on his way to 102 scrimmage yards. In Week 2's blowout win over the New York Jets, he tallied 21 rushes and 1 target for 135 scrimmage yards.

Whether it's as a receiver, rusher, or a bit of both, Cook is racking up the yards, and this market could let us cash in regardless of how he's deployed on Thursday.

This shoddy Miami defense has already allowed 98 scrimmage yards to Jonathan Taylor and 142 yards to Rhamondre Stevenson over the first two weeks, further giving us confidence in Cook's production.

Tyreek Hill Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards (-120)

If all goes as expected, the Dolphins will be in comeback mode when it's all said and done, and a negative game script likely means Tua Tagovailoa will be slinging it deep to Hill.

Tyreek has a solid if unspectacular 20.6% target share, but he's averaged 4.0 downfield targets (10-plus yards) per game, leading to a meaty 43.5% air yards share. In Week 1, Hill's longest reception was 21 yards, and in a more competitive Week 2 matchup, he made catches of 47 and 22 yards, so he's just barely missed going over this mark three times already.

PFF has credited Tagovailoa with a 92.8 pass grade on throws of 20-plus yards this season, which is another positive, and even in an underwhelming 2024 campaign, Tua had a solid 80.2 grade in this split.

Further, Buffalo's defense has been allowing chunk plays, as they've given up catches of 15-plus yards at the sixth-highest rate (18.9%).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.