3 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Commanders at Packers on Thursday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Thursday night matchup between the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Commanders at Packers Betting Picks on Thursday Night Football

Commanders +3.5 (-120)

Week 2 opens with another compelling Thursday Night Football matchup to kick off the NFL slate. Both the Commanders and Packers won their Week 1 matchups by double-digit points, and Green Bay was particularly impressive in their victory over a Detroit Lions team that finished 15-2 a season ago.

While there's no question the Packers had the tougher opening opponent -- the Commanders dispatched the lowly New York Giants in Week 1 -- both teams enter this matchup firmly within the top 10 of numberFire's nERD-based power rankings.

The teams also rated well in offensive and defensive efficiency last week. According to Net Expected Points (numberFire's EPA model), the Packers ranked 6th on offense and 10th on defense while the Commanders were 5th and 6th. There's only so much we can learn from a one-game sample, but it once again suggests that this should be a tight contest.

According to historical betting trends from 2019-2024 researched by our Brandon Gdula, Week 2 favorites cover less often than Week 1 favorites, and more specifically, home favorites have just a 35.1% cover rate. In strictly Thursday Night Football games, home teams have covered just 45.7% of the time and favorites have covered 40.0% of the time in Weeks 1-5.

We also need to remember that this is a Washington team that advanced to the NFC Championship last season, so this is hardly a run-of-the-mill opponent for Green Bay.

Put it all together, and despite the Packers' strong showing in their opener, I like the Commanders' chances of covering this spread. Our Jim Sannes' spread model projects Green Bay winning by 3.0 points, which also backs a Washington cover.

Over 48.5 (-106)

Last Thursday, we liked the over in the Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles game, and it sure looked like we were going to get there when the two teams combined for 41 points in the first half. However, only three points would come in the second act, leading to the under.

Well, we're going back to the well and backing the over again. While Thursday Night Football games have the reputation of being low-scoring slogs, scoring tends to be higher in these contests earlier in the season, and scoring generally improves in Week 2.

This matchup also projects to be the week's fastest matchup in average offensive pace, as both teams are in the top five in adjusted pace, per Gdula. Quarterbacks Jayden Daniels and Jordan Love aren't exactly bums, either.

Sannes' totals model also predicts a high-scoring affair, projecting the teams to reach 51.6 points.

Austin Ekeler Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Jacory Croskey-Merritt got all the hype this offseason, but in Week 1, Austin Ekeler still led the backfield in snap rate (49.2%) by a wide margin over both Croskey-Merritt (29.2%) and Jeremy McNichols (20.0%).

Particularly if Washington falls behind as a road underdog, the pass-catching Ekeler could see that snap rate jump even higher, as he earned a higher route rate (32.4%) and target share (10.3%) than both other backs combined. While that doesn't directly translate to additional rushes, if Ekeler is on the field more often for his receiving abilities, he could also be utilized more often as a runner.

Further, Ekeler was the preferred back near the goal line, earning a 66.7% snap rate in the red zone. A back-and-forth affair could further boost his usage.

As is, Ekeler rushed 6 times for 26 yards last week, and FanDuel Research's NFL projections peg him for 5.8 carries and 24.5 rushing yards today. This simply isn't a high bar for Ekeler to clear, and we should like his chances of reaching 21+ rushing yards.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.