3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Thursday 9/11/25

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

Utilizing our MLB home run projections as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+300)

Right-hander Cristian Javier has made just five starts this season, and while he's allowed only two home runs over 20 1/3 innings, we're likely to see a whole lot more before the season concludes.

That's because Javier isn't inducing very many grounders, and that's especially the case versus right-handed batters. In the split, he's produced a 7.4% ground-ball rate, leading to a sky-high 70.4% fly-ball rate. Add in a mostly unimposing 23.3% strikeout rate in same-handed matchups, and this looks like a golden opportunity for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to cash in with a dinger.

Guerrero enters the day with 23 home runs, and it's a bit surprising he doesn't have more, as he's in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate (51.1%), average exit velocity (92.5 MPH), and xSLG (.535). His maximum exit velocity has hit an absurd 120.4 MPH, which places him in the 100th percentile, as well.

Guerrero has also been dialed in at the plate lately. He went hitless on Wednesday, but prior to that, he was on an eight-game hit streak that included multi-hit games over the last six.

Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+285)

Even at age 35, Giancarlo Stanton still possesses frightening power when he's healthy. He's rocking a 21.3% barrel rate that would rank third among qualified hitters behind only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. We're expecting the combination of opener Tyler Holton and bulk reliever Sawyer Gipson-Long to begin the game for the Detroit Tigers, and that isn't a duo that should give Stanton much trouble.

The left-handed Holton struggles with righties, logging just a 16.7% strikeout rate in the split. He's coughed up 2.41 HR/9 to that handedness, as well.

Meanwhile, Gipson-Long is a right-hander, but he's demonstrated some extreme reverse splits. In same-handed matchups, he's posted a 5.89 xFIP, 9.3% strikeout rate, and 42.2% fly-ball rate -- and all 6 home runs he's allowed have come against that side of the plate (4.76 HR/9).

Despite these shorter odds, this plus matchup puts Stanton firmly on the radar tonight.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+400)

Given that Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit three home runs in the past seven games and has logged at least one hard-hit ball in every game over that span, I'm surprised his home run odds aren't shorter in an inviting matchup against Colorado Rockies right-hander McCade Brown.

Over his first three MLB starts, Brown has been rocked for a 12.54 ERA, and while that's partially due to poor luck and two outings at Coors Field, a 7.86 xFIP, 6.27 SIERA, and 7.61 xERA don't exactly suggest he's in for a great turnaround. The combination of an 11.3% strikeout rate, 5.4% swinging-strike rate, and 41.7% ground-ball rate all point to home run issues, too.

Worse yet, Brown will be facing the San Diego Padres for the second straight start, so they're already familiar with his arsenal. That last outing didn't go swimmingly, as Brown was crushed for 6 earned runs in just 1 2/3 innings.

In addition to performing well of late, Tatis has encouraging marks in average exit velocity (95th percentile) and hard-hit rate (94th percentile) this season, further supporting a strong finish. Additionally, 17 of his 21 dingers have come versus right-handers in 2025.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.