3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Colts at Chiefs, Week 12

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out Sunday as the Indianapolis Colts take on the Kansas City Chiefs? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Colts at Chiefs Betting Picks

Total Over 49.5 (-115)

This isn't a spot where the Chiefs can slow things down and play conservatively. They've gotta cook, and with these two offenses, that could lead to points aplenty.

After adjusting for injuries and priors, the Colts and Chiefs are both top-three offenses in the league, according to my model. While the Chiefs get there via Patrick Mahomes' efficiency with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, the Colts do it with a rushing attack that breaks the scales.

We get strength on weakness in both aspects. The Chiefs rank 24th in EPA per carry allowed to opposing running backs (adjusted for schedule), and the Colts' pass defense has been a below-average unit. They get bumped up with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward in the mix, but the absence of DeForest Buckner at least partially negates that.

With the wind speeds also low here, it's a good recipe for points, allowing me to take the over even at a high number.

Kareem Hunt Over 54.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Buckner injury has an even bigger impact on the ground game, boosting Kareem Hunt in a spot where he should be on the field plenty.

This will be the Chiefs' third straight game without Isiah Pacheco. Hunt has played more than 80% of the snaps in each of the first two. That has resulted in just 49 and 59 rushing yards, but both games were on the road whereas this one will be at home. That should give him at least a tiny jolt.

Even with Buckner, the Colts haven't been great against the run. They're 27th in EPA per carry allowed to opposing running backs. That should allow Hunt to flirt with this number even without having chunk gains in his corner.

Alec Pierce Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

In the past, this would have been a bad matchup for Alec Pierce. The Chiefs have faced the lowest average depth of target in the league, once you adjust for schedule, and Pierce feasts on the deep ball. But his re-worked route tree makes him a value.

For the season, 50.0% of Pierce's targets have been more than 15 yards downfield. That's a massive number, but it's actually down from 57.4% last year. He's getting more bunny targets, leading to a 21.8% target per route rate and 2.5 yards per route run.

That combo has helped Pierce go over 55.5 receiving yards in 6 of 8 games this year, including four straight. The Chiefs' defensive approach keeps me from dabbling in the alt markets, but this baseline number is very achievable with the way Pierce is being utilized.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.