3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Broncos at Jets, Week 6

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.
You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.
So, which bets stand out Sunday as the Denver Broncos take on the New York Jets? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Broncos at Jets Betting Picks
Broncos -7.0 (-118)
Spread
The Broncos and Jets will duke it out across the pond in London at 9:30 am ET, giving us our third straight week with an international game to serve as an appetizer before the early window.
Unfortunately, I'm not sure it will be a close contest.
These two teams are separated by 19 spots in our latest power rankings, per numberFire's metrics, with the Broncos up at 8th and the Jets way down at 27th. New York's low slot isn't exactly shocking given their 0-5 record, and that's further backed by them sitting 26th in schedule-adjusted offense and 29th in schedule-adjusted defense. In contrast, Denver is 14th in adjusted offense and 4th in adjusted defense.
Justin Fields is actually averaging a respectable 0.06 expected points added per drop back (EPA/DB), which is 13th among QBs with at least 100 drop backs, per NFL Next Gen Stats, but this is arguably a misleading mark when we break down how he's gotten there.
Across the first three quarters, Fields has averaged -0.04 EPA/DB over 79 drop backs, whereas he's averaged 0.21 EPA/DB in 51 fourth quarter drop backs. Most of those fourth quarter drop backs have come over the last two weeks (38) down double-digit points against two of the league's worst pass defenses (the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys). In other words, his EPA/DB has been inflated by some super soft matchups and garbage time.
Fields has also been sacked at the league's eighth-highest clip (8.6%) behind PFF's 22nd-ranked offensive line, and he'll likely be under fire against a Broncos defense that's second in pressure rate (44.7%) and first in sack rate (10.6%).
This could be another long day for the Jets against an all-around superior opponent, and I expect the Broncos to be able to win by over a touchdown.
Broncos Over 26.5 Total Points (-111)
DEN Broncos Total Points
This is a bit of a high mark for Denver to reach -- they've scored 27+ points twice in five games -- but both of these teams play at a fast clip, and New York has given up 34, 30, 29, 27, and 37 points this season.
According to our Brandon Gdula, these teams rank fourth and seventh in adjusted pace, leading to this matchup projecting as the second-quickest in average offensive pace. Normally, this would push me toward the over of this game's overall total (43.5), but I worry the Jets won't be able to do enough to hold up their end of the bargain versus a tough Broncos defense.
However, that same defense should also provide a big assist for Bo Nix and friends with short fields and potentially turnovers. Fields hasn't thrown a pick yet, but he's fumbled three times already.
And as noted early, this defense has struggled to stop anyone this year. Given all those factors, the Broncos should be able to do enough to hit this over.
J.K. Dobbins Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
J.K. Dobbins - Rushing Yds
Considering we're expecting a positive game script for Denver, there's a good chance J.K. Dobbins has a productive day on the ground.
Dobbins has exceeded this mark in four of five weeks, averaging 15.4 carries and 80.4 rushing yards per game. While he comes off the field more than we would like (51.4% snap rate), he's the clear lead back of this offense and most recently saw a season-high 20 carries in Week 5.
This matchup also checks out. New York is 24th in adjusted rush defense and has allowed big performances to James Cook (132 rushing yards), De'Von Achane (99), and Javonte Williams (135).
Our NFL projections forecast 73.0 rushing yards for Dobbins on Sunday.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.