3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Bears at Eagles on Black Friday

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

So, which bets stand out on Black Friday as the Chicago Bears take on the Philadelphia Eagles? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Bears at Eagles Betting Picks for Black Friday

Bears Alternate Spread +4.5 (+134)

In order to take the full seven points with the Bears, you have to pay -110 as things stand. Given a bet on them comes with healthy risk, I'd rather sell points and reduce my stake size in order to get a bigger payout. For me, +4.5 seems like the right tipping point.

My model has the Eagles favored by just 3.4 points here, and we'll discuss why in a second. Since I started running my betting model, I've had 116 teams in roughly the same spot as the Bears. Here's how often they've covered different spreads and the available odds on that bet at FanDuel.

As you can see, because I'm pretty far off market here, the Bears are a value across the board (and they're a value on the moneyline at +270, as well). So, you can play this how you like, depending on your risk tolerance and confidence they can keep this one close. For me, 4.5 is the sweet spot.

Now let's discuss the why. A lot of it comes down to concern around the Eagles' offense.

This isn't buying into the narrative about the lockerroom turmoil. It's just about the data, and it isn't all that flattering as things stand.

The Eagles enter Week 13 just 13th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. That's actually two spots behind the Bears.

While the Bears have been somewhat on the ascent, the Eagles are banged up with right tackle Lane Johnson out and the interior of the offensive line playing through injuries.

The defense -- which has been phenomenal since their trade deadline acquisitions -- is now dealing with injuries, too, with Andrew Mukuba out for an extended period of time. While the Bears' defense is also hurt, they do seemingly have reinforcements on the way with Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson getting in full practices last week.

The Eagles could make this look silly as their ceiling remains elite. That's part of why I'd rather be a bit aggressive with the Bears to give me more reward for my risk. Either way, I do think the market is too low on them as of now.

Dallas Goedert Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Even with the Bears' secondary getting healthier, the linebacking corps is in shambles. Dallas Goedert should be the biggest beneficiary.

Goedert's production is trending the wrong way as he has gone under this number in four of the past five games. Still, he has a 19.1% target share in the games he has played this year, and it's still respectable enough at 15.1% in 3 games since the bye.

That usage should increase with the Bears potentially missing their top four linebackers this week, all of whom are on the injury report once again. Tight ends had been good against the Bears even before the injuries as Jake Ferguson, Theo Johnson, and Juwan Johnson all had 75-plus yards against them. Goedert doesn't need to get anywhere near that mark, so I like this as a buy-low spot on him.

Luther Burden Anytime Touchdown (+470)

I'm showing value on both Luther Burden III and D.J. Moore (+370) to score this week with their roles trending the right way. I prefer Burden, but if you like what you've seen from Moore, he's a fine option, as well.

Burden's role continued its ascension last week. He ran a route on 52.6% of the drop backs, his second straight week topping 50%. He earned five targets on those routes, equaling his total from Week 11. This comes after Ben Johnson said Burden had earned more work via his quality play.

Burden's red-zone role hasn't wowed just yet, so I have what I believe to be a modest projection in for him. Even with that, I have his fair touchdown odds at +400 in this game, giving us a way to buy into his role before the market truly realizes he is on the rise.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.