3 Best NBA Bets and Predictions for Monday 3/3/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Washington Wizards at Miami Heat

Heat Over 113.5 Points (-110)

Despite going 3-7 over their last 10 games, the Miami Heat's offense has been very productive in the last three by averaging 122.7 points per game (PPG). With the third-worst defensive rating, the Washington Wizards are a nice matchup for the Heat's rolling offense.

DRatings' game projections have Miami reaching 117.1 points, pointing to over 113.5 points. The Heat typically lean on the three with the 10th-most makes and 11th-most three-point shots per game paired with the 8th-highest three-point shot distribution (per Dunks & Threes). Washington is allowing the fourth-most made three-pointers and sixth-most attempted threes per contest. Shot distributions also show a weakness on the perimeter, for the Wizards allow the 10th-lowest shot distribution around the rim compared to the 15th-lowest from three. Further aiding Miami's ability to shoot the three, it has been over 50.0% from deep in two of the last three and is logging 17.0 made threes per game over the last three.

Keep an eye on Andrew Wiggins (ankle) as he's questionable for tonight, and the former No. 1 pick has averaged 17.6 PPG in his first six games with the Heat.

If Wiggins can go, Miami's wings should present a big problem as Tyler Herro is posting 24.1 PPG. Washington wing Bilal Coulibaly has a dreadful 120.6 defensive rating, and Khris Middleton sported a meh 114.3 defensive rating with the Milwaukee Bucks before being traded.

The Wizards' pace of play (fourth-quickest) probably won't prevent points either, for they allow the fourth-most made and attempted field goals per game. Led by a weak perimeter defense from Washington, the Heat's scoring hot streak should keep up.

Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies

Grizzlies Under 131.5 Points (-106)

Ja Morant (shoulder) was absent from the Memphis Grizzlies' bout on Saturday, and he's questionable for tonight's clash with the Atlanta Hawks. Considering his 20.9 PPG and team-high 31.2% usage rate, Memphis would be without a major piece if he cannot go.

If Morant is out, I'm firmly leaning on the under for the Grizzlies' team total. Frankly, the under feels like a great bet no matter what. This team total is set at a sky high-131.5 points -- Memphis has reached 130 points in only 2 of its past 10.

This matchup features the NBA's two quickest paces, explaining the massive 253.5 total. The Hawks surrendering the 14th-lowest three-point shot distribution should help keep the points down, though, especially with the Grizzlies averaging the 11th-most made threes per game.

Memphis also heavily relies on free throws with the most makes and attempts per contest. However, Atlanta has the 10th-fewest personal fouls per play. A dip in points from three and the charity stripe should be enough to keep this under 131.5 points.

The Grizzlies average the second-most points in the paint per game while the Hawks give up the sixth-most points in the paint per contest; this could be the biggest worry for Memphis going over. However, excelling from two instead of the three-point line still bodes well for the under. DRatings has the Grizzlies going under by a decent cushion with 125.6 projected points.

Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks

Kings -2.5 (-108)

Monday's slate looks pretty underwhelming as five of seven games features spreads of at least 8.5 points. The Sacramento Kings-Dallas Mavericks is one of two games with a tight spread as Sacramento is a 2.5-point favorite on the road.

Dallas is 1-3 straight up and against the spread (ATS) over its last three games while the Kings have won and covered three straight games. Sacramento's shot distributions have been extremely weak on the season, carrying the third-lowest mark around the rim and sixth-lowest mark from three-point land. However, this is shaping up to be a great matchup for the Kings.

The Mavericks continue to deal with a load of injuries in the frontcourt as Anthony Davis (adductor), Dereck Lively (ankle), and Daniel Gafford (knee) will all be out. Keep in mind Dallas already allows the eighth-highest shot distribution around the rim and seventh-most points in the paint allowed per game. For Sacramento, it averages the 7th-fewest three-point makes per game compared to the 14th-most points in the paint per game. This offense is at least capable of attacking the rim -- something that should be wide open for tonight's meeting. The Kings have even shot over 40.0% from three in two of the last three, potentially putting the Mavericks in a bind.

On the other side of the court, Sacramento has been excellent around the rim by allowing the second-lowest shot distribution around the rim. This is where the Mavs score the most, recording the 13th-most points in the paint per game.

Domantas Sabonis (hamstring) will be out, putting some concern around the Kings' ability to win in the painted area. However, they still managed to win Saturday's contest 113-103 as four-point 'dogs against the Houston Rockets with Sabonis playing for only one minute.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.