3 Best NBA Bets and Predictions for Friday 2/28/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NBA Betting Picks

Oklahoma City Thunder at Atlanta Hawks

Under 243.5 Points (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder haven't been involved in a total this high since 244 against the Memphis Grizzlies on February 8, which led to the under with a 237-point combined total. Keep in mind the Grizzlies lead the NBA for the quickest pace along with the sixth-highest offensive rating.

With that said, the Association's top defensive rating is being overlooked against the Atlanta Hawks. This team isn't close to Memphis' efficiency, ranking 16th in offensive rating along with a 53.4% effective field goal percentage (12th-lowest).

The Hawks average the fourth-most points in the paint per game and hold the fourth-highest shot distribution around the rim (per Dunks & Threes). The Thunder have the answer by giving up the fewest points in the paint per contest and the seventh-lowest shot distribution around the rim. This is a strong interior defense led by Chet Holmgren -- who boasts an impressive 103.7 defensive rating.

As one of the league's best teams, the Thunder can score from anywhere -- proven by the 10th-most points in the paint and 11th-most made threes per game. Limiting the three-ball can further help keep this total down, and Atlanta is stingy by surrendering the 14th-lowest three-point shot distribution. On the other side of the court, the Hawks also have the 13th-lowest three-point shot distribution along with the 11th-lowest three-point percentage.

Ultimately, this matchup involves the best defense the NBA has to offer. This total feels too high, which is in line with DRatings' game projections carrying 234.9 combined points.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics

Cavaliers +2.5 (-112)

The top matchup of Friday by a mile is a collision between the Eastern Conference's top squads -- the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics. The two have met three times this season, which Boston leads 2-1, but Cleveland is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) in the meetings.

Keep a close eye on the injury report as Jaylen Brown (thigh) and Jrue Holiday (hand) are questionable. If both players cannot go, this could quickly swing to the Cavaliers' favor. With that said, we could be getting great value with Cleveland +2.5. The Cavaliers carrying a 4-1 ATS record over the last five meetings only provides more confidence.

Cleveland should become more competitive with Boston after its trade for De'Andre Hunter. He's flourished over his first six games as a Cav, shooting 50.0% from the field and a lethal 56.7% from three. Even better, Hunter has a 103.7 defensive rating in his brief time in Cleveland. This is exactly why the Cavaliers made the move, hoping for a high-end, 3-and-D player. This could at least improve the Cavs' chances of attempting to slow Brown and/or Jayson Tatum.

Boston comes off a 20-point loss against the Detroit Pistons while Cleveland is on a eight-game winning streak and is a perfect 6-0 when Hunter in the rotation. Most importantly, the Cavaliers are best at limiting threes on defense by giving up the sixth-lowest shot distribution, and the Celtics have the highest three-point shot distribution by a mile (53.6% while second-highest is 47.0%). Additionally, the Cavs total the 8th-most points in the paint per game, and Boston is somewhat vulnerable in the painted area by giving up the 14th-lowest shot distribution around the rim.

Boston continues to be a thorn in Cleveland's side, but this one should be close. DRatings has the Celtics winning by only 0.6 points, pointing to the Cavaliers to cover.

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat

Pacers Under 115.5 Points (-112)

The Indiana Pacers look to get into scoring battles with the 6th-quickest pace and 10th-most PPG. While they have the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage, the Pacers average the 12th-fewest field goal attempts per game. The Miami Heat could force this game into a slow pace while eliminating Indiana's scoring strength.

Starting with the pace, Miami plays at the third-slowest tempo and allow only 110.6 PPG (seventh-fewest). While the Pacers can create some chaos with the 10th-most forced turnovers per game, the Heat take care of the ball with the 11th-fewest turnovers per contest. This should eliminate some of Indiana's ability to run as it records the sixth-most fast break points per game.

The Pacers also average the 6th-most points in the paint per game and have the 13th-lowest shot distribution around the rim compared top the 6th-lowest from three. This is where Indiana could truly be in trouble. Its shot distributions leave a lot to be desired by touting the third-highest mark for mid-range jumpers. This shot is considered more and more inefficient by analytics, and leaning on this in a slow-paced game could lead to a frustrating night.

Scoring around the rim could be a challenge too with Miami giving up the fourth-lowest shot distribution around the rim. The Heat can take away the Pacers' biggest strength on offense while also making this game ugly. Give me under 115.5 points for Indiana.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.