3 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Magic at Celtics
Even within a single NBA game, betting markets are abundant.
You can bet traditional markets like the spread or the total, but we've also got tons of player-prop markets to sift through.
Which bets stand out today as the Orlando Magic face the Boston Celtics?
Let's dig into the best bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA betting odds, utilizing FanDuel Research's NBA projections to try to find value.
Magic at Celtics Betting Picks
Celtics Over 114.5 Points (-105)
Tonight's nationally televised game between the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics has lost some of its edge due to injuries.
The Magic have six guys listed out on the injury report, including Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner, Goga Bitadze, and Jalen Suggs. Thus, the home team is favored by a massive 14.5 points. That's not a spread I feel comfortable biting on, particularly since Paolo Banchero is finally back in the fold for Orlando, but I do see some value in the over on Boston's team total.
The Celtics are averaging 117.5 points per game (fourth-most in the NBA) and have scored over 114.5 points at a 55.0% rate this season. The main reason I like Boston tonight? The offense is due for major positive scoring regression, particularly from three-point land.
Home Team Total Points
Across their last five games, Boston has gone a vomit-inducing 61-for-212 (28.9% 3P%) from downtown. It's been an appallingly unfortunate stretch for one of the better three-point shooting teams in basketball. Before that span, they were holding on to a 37.1% team three-point percentage, the 11th-best in the NBA.
Regression could come on strong tonight for a few key reasons. Trusted three-point shooters such as Derrick White, Sam Hauser, and Payton Pritchard can be incompetent for only so long. That's the very nature of regression. Playing at home should help, too, as the Celtics net 118.0 points and 19.0 3PM at TD Garden. It doesn't hurt that Orlando is without two of their best defenders in Franz Wagner and Suggs. Boston shoots a league-leading 49.3 three-point attempts, so they should manage to eclipse 114.5 points with regression waiting in the wings.
Derrick White To Score 15+ Points (+140)
Earlier this afternoon, this prop was listed at +150 odds but can still be found out at a value. Derrick White has scored at least 15 points in 65.8% of his games -- up from the 41.7% implied probability on these +140 odds.
Moreover, White has scored 15 points at a 77.8% rate against the top 10 defenses in the league, including against this very Magic team. He's also gone for 15 points in 81.8% of games versus bottom 10 pace teams.
White is dying to encounter positive regression after suffering a 22.2% FG% and 10.3% 3P% across his last four games. Playing at home could help as White sees improved shooting percentages from the field, three-point line, and free-throw line at TD Garden.
Our NBA projections expect him to tally 15.2 points tonight.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 2+ Made Threes (-125)
Coming into this season, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope held the reputation of being one of the best three-and-D assets in the league. For five straight seasons, he shot threes around or above a 40.0% clip.
His first season with the Magic, however, got off to a rough start. Heading into the new year, he was shooting threes at a brutal 28.9% clip -- good for the second-worst rate among players who attempted at least 150 threes.
We've flagged him as a top regression candidate and can finally bite tonight. In January, KCP has drilled at least two threes in all but one of his six games, not including an 11-minute game he left due to injury.
He's gone 16-for-36 (44.4% 3P%) from behind the arc in this stretch and made at least three threes in four of those six contests.
With Suggs and Wagner -- Orlando's top three-point shooters based on volume -- both out, KCP should continue to fill the team's three-point void. This date with Boston could serve him well, as they've let up the 13th-most 3PA and the 5th-most 3PM across their last 15 games. On the season, the Celtics have surrendered the fifth-most 3PA and 3PM to opposing guards.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.