3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Picks for Monday 4/28/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Prop Bets

JP Sears Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104)

We just saw this matchup last week, meaning the Texas Rangers are familiar with JP Sears' repertoire. That's a downgrade for him. I still like the over despite that.

Sears pitched well in that start. He let up two runs on five hits across five innings, going over this prop with five strikeouts. His swinging-strike rate was above his baseline at 10.5%.

This continues a slight uptick for Sears' strikeouts. He's not throwing his sinker this year, a pitch he started to de-emphasize in the second half last year. In 16 starts with fewer sinkers, his strikeout rate is 19.7%.

The Rangers' active roster also has a 23.7% strikeout rate against lefties since the start of last year, helping boost Sears' strikeout projection to 4.89. Pitchers in that range for me have gone over 4.5 strikeouts 54.8% of the time, allowing me to take the plus money on Sears.

Gavin Williams Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-102)

For as many issues as the Minnesota Twins' offense has, strikeouts aren't one of them. That creates value in the under on Gavin Williams.

This iteration of the Twins' active roster has a 20.7% strikeout rate against righties this year. That goes up a bit to 21.7% when you include last year's data, as well. My model still leans on the latter number, meaning it may actually be over-selling the Twins as a matchup a bit.

As for Williams, he's coming off a start where he had eight strikeouts against the New York Yankees. That pushed his strikeout rate this year to 23.9%. Even with a number in that range as his baseline, I still have him projected for 5.46 strikeouts tonight.

Because he needs to exceed that by 0.54 strikeouts to hit the over, pitchers in this range have actually gone under 5.5 strikeouts at a rate of 59.9%. That's why I'm willing to take the under even though my projection is right near the number posted in the market.

Trevor Williams to Record 5-Plus Strikeouts (+164)

This game serves as the appetizer of the day's slate, getting underway at 4 pm Eastern. I'm not going to object to having a rooting interest here, especially not when it's on someone the market continues to underrate in Trevor Williams.

Williams' velocity hasn't been great this year, which could explain why his strikeout rate is down a couple percentage points from last year. However, we saw this dip begin before he hit the injured list in June of 2024, and he still pitched relatively well both then and now.

It's an 11-start sample on Williams with his velocity around where it's at now. In that span, his strikeout rate is 21.8%. This year alone, he's generating tons of whiffs with both his sweeper and his changeup, helping him get to five strikeouts in three of five starts.

I'm pretty far off market on Williams, projecting him for 4.84 strikeouts. It's possible that I'm too high on him. But when we're getting +164, that risk is mitigated, so I'm still willing to buy in for now.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.