3 Best MLB Strikeout Prop Bets for Tuesday 7/1/25

Within a given MLB slate, there are tons of strikeout props to sort through as there are lines posted for most of the day's starting pitchers.

Across today's action, which MLB player props seem to present the best value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds?

We're going to dig into that today, laying out my favorite strikeout props across all the action. You can also do some research of your own by digging into our MLB player prop projections.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB K Prop Picks

Colton Gordon Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Colton Gordon's strikeout prop gets double-dinged today: once for pitching on the road and another for pitching at Coors Field, specifically. Even after those deductions, I still see value in the over.

Through eight starts, Gordon's strikeouts rate is 22.0%. That seems legitimate with his Triple-A mark at 25.3%. That's while having some pretty difficult matchups in this time.

The Colorado Rockies are not that. Their active roster has an 85 wRC+ and a 25.4% strikeout rate against lefties, and their overall strikeout rate against lefties at home is 26.4%. Thus, even with Gordon downgraded, I still have his projection at 5.09 strikeouts, allowing me to take the plus money on the over.

Clay Holmes Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)

After a hot start, Clay Holmes may be running out of gas as a starter. That leads to value in his under against the Milwaukee Brewers.

For the full season, Holmes' strikeout rate is 20.4%. A lot of those whiffs came early in the season, though. Over his past 11 starts, he has shifted toward his sinker and away from his four-seamer, and in that time, his strikeout rate dips all the way to 16.1%. This has meant that even with his pitch count up, he has gone under 4.5 strikeouts in 7 of those 11 games.

Holmes' results in that time have still been great, so there's no reason to expect him to shift this approach. I think the strikeout reduction is more likely to stick because of this.

Tonight, he'll face the Brewers, who are a below-average matchup for a righty. Before even factoring the chance of an in-game rain delay, I've got Holmes projected at just 3.83 strikeouts on the night.

Michael Lorenzen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

The Kansas City Royals seem to be keeping Michael Lorenzen's pitch count in check, pushing me toward his under.

Lorenzen hasn't gone over 92 pitches since May 26th, a 5-start stretch. This isn't hyper-abnormal for him as he has gone 95-plus pitches only 5 times all year across 16 starts, but the restriction has been more pronounced recently.

Lorenzen -- like Holmes -- is also throwing more sinkers of late at the expense of his four-seam fastball. His four-seam usage hit a new season low of 7.4% last time out. The sinker has just a 7.3% whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant, and Lorenzen's strikeout rate is down to 17.6% in this span.

Tonight, he'll face the Seattle Mariners. Not only have they been red-hot recently -- their active roster is third in wRC+ the past month -- but they don't strike out much. Once you combine all those factors, I have Lorenzen's projection exactly in line with Holmes' at 3.83.

Get a 50% Profit Boost Token for a “To Hit a Home Run” wager on any MLB game(s) taking place on July 1st! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which strikeout props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.