3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Tuesday 7/1/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins

Marlins Moneyline (+132)

We've got two quality pitchers on the bump today in Miami as Joe Ryan and Edward Cabrera square off. I like the Miami Marlins' chances to pull the upset.

Cabrera is a big reason why. He is thriving in 2025, pitching to a career-best 3.99 SIERA. He's always been able to get punchouts -- career K rate of 25.8% -- and now he's lowered his walk rate to 10.5%. That's another career-best clip. He should be able to have some success versus a Minnesota Twins offense that is a middling 15th in wOBA against righties (.317).

Ryan has long been an advanced-stats darling, and that's true again this campaign as he owns a 3.04 SIERA and 29.4% strikeout rate. But the Marlins' offense is cooking right now, ranking fifth in wOBA over the last seven days (.357), and for as good as Ryan is, he gives up a lot of fly-balls (49.3% rate this season), which has led to homer issues in the past (1.55 HRs per nine across 2023-2024).

Miami (10th) and Minnesota (8th) both have bullpens that sit in the top 10 in xFIP over the last 30 days, so all in all, this is a pretty even matchup -- pushing me toward Miami's +132 moneyline odds.

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Cardinals Moneyline (+142)

It's Paul Skenes Day for the Pittsburgh Pirates, so they're favored over the St. Louis Cardinals, but I'm intrigued by the Cards' +142 moneyline.

Andre Pallante has quietly been very good for the Red Birds. Through 87 1/3 innings, he's sporting a 3.86 SIERA and 10.3% swinging-strike rate. Pallante makes his living by keeping the ball on the ground (63.3% ground-ball rate). He's permitted two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four outings, recording a 3.33 xFIP in that span. Facing a Pittsburgh offense that is 27th in wOBA versus RHP (.298), Pallante is in line for a good night.

Skenes is obviously a difficult matchup for the Cards' offense as he's got a 3.29 SIERA and 26.9% K rate. But Skenes can do well and the Pirates still lose -- something we've seen pretty often as Skenes holds a 4-7 record despite his excellent numbers.

I have very little faith in the Pirates' offense against anyone, especially a quality arm such as Pallante, and once Skenes is out of the game, the Cardinals can go to work against a Pittsburgh bullpen that is 21st in xFIP (4.22).

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 9.0 Runs (-104)

With Hayden Birdsong and Zac Gallen as the starting pitchers for tonight's San Francisco Giants-Arizona Diamondbacks matchup, I am into the under.

Birdsong has struggled of late, but he's been pretty solid overall this season, pitching to a 4.10 SIERA and 11.6% swinging-strike rate. He's been better on the road (4.07 xFIP) than at home (4.73 xFIP). Lefties have been his bugaboo as they have mashed him for 1.73 homers per nine and a .388 wOBA, but Arizona will be without Corbin Carroll and potentially Josh Naylor as Naylor has missed three straight games.

Gallen is not having a good season. Following a three-year span in which he registered a 3.60 SIERA and 26.0% strikeout rate, Gallen has a 4.44 SIERA and 20.8% K rate this season. But the Giants' offense is a friendly matchup as San Fran is 24th in wOBA over the last 14 days (.292).

It helps our case that both bullpens have been stellar of late, with the Giants (fourth) and Diamondbacks (sixth) each in the top 10 in reliever xFIP across the last 14 days.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.